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Retail is selling while institutions are buying. And since the nonfarm figures haven’t been released yet, don’t mess around this week.
Today, FGI dropped to 12.
Not 18, not 15—12. The kind of extreme fear that’s on another level.
But lately I’ve been thinking about one thing: last week, SharpLink bought 39,196 ETH around this number, and Samsung and SK have just announced they’re pouring $1.3 trillion into AI semiconductors—what retail sees as panic, what are the big funds seeing?
This week actually isn’t a good time to make a directional call, for a simple reason: the truly important information hasn’t come out yet.
On Tuesday, the US and Iran are negotiating in Doha, and just last Saturday they attacked each other again in the Strait of Hormuz. Nobody knows whether this ceasefire will hold. On Thursday, nonfarm payrolls will be released early (because of the July 4 holiday). The strength of the employment data directly determines whether Warsh will raise rates—and once expectations for a rate hike shift, the dollar, gold, and BTC will all move in step.