263 days! Since reaching its ATH ($126,198) on October 6, 2025, Bitcoin has been in a deep adjustment phase for nearly 9 months.

Now, is this the window for a systematic bottom-fishing?
Cycle review: There is neither an eternal bull market nor an eternal bear market.
Historical data shows that the previous two cycles (2017-2018, 2021-2022) took about 10-13 months from peak to bottom. The current cycle has run for about 266 days, placing it in the latter half of the time dimension.
Currently, BTC has retraced about 52.5% from its ATH (current price ~$59,600-$60,000), which is significantly milder than the historical bear market average retracement of 70-85%.
Core operational logic:
Accumulate spot positions in batches on dips. The limited magnitude of this correction is mainly attributed to the continuous inflow of institutional capital (ETFs, Wall Street), significantly increased market depth and liquidity, and partial hedging of extreme volatility.
Short-term washout pressure may persist, but the room is limited;
In the long term, indicators such as the cost curve and MVRV are gradually approaching historical bottom ranges.
Altcoin cost-effectiveness:
BTC retraced 52.5%, ETH has fallen about 68% from its ATH (~$4,946) (current price ~$1,570-$1,580), and SOL has fallen about 75% from its ATH (~$294) (current price ~$72-$73). Altcoins have higher beta and greater elasticity.
Strategy switch record:
Over the past 6 months, the focus was on trend shorting, systematically capturing this decline.
Shift starting from the end of June: Stop large-scale shorting, initiate long-term spot buying in batches. Plan to complete the remaining accumulation over the next 1-2 months, reserving 10-20% cash for potential final washout (historical bottoms are often accompanied by panic selling).
Short-term execution:
BTC: Focus on the 58,500-59,000 support zone (historical volume concentration area + round number). If it holds, the rebound target is 61,000-62,000; if it breaks below 58k, light short positions can be taken. Switch between long and short based on funding rates and OI data, controlling each position at 3-5% of total capital.
ETH: 1,550-1,580 is strong support (low ETH/BTC ratio + ETF inflow observation window), rebound target 1,650-1,700. Go long if it breaks above 1,580, switch to short if it breaks below 1,550, with a strict 1% stop loss.
SOL: $70-72 is a key defense level. If it holds, aim for a rebound to 78-80; use Solana chain TVL and DEX trading volume as confirmation signals.
General rules: Only execute 1-2 high-probability setups per day, using 1H/4H charts + volume + capital flow filtering; extreme risk control (single position ≤1% of total capital, daily ≤3%); reduce positions or stay on the sidelines during weekends/high volatility periods. The short-term goal is to capture volatility premiums, providing additional ammunition for long-term positions.