Retail is selling, institutions are buying, and the nonfarm payrolls haven't come out yet — don't move this week.

Today, the FGI dropped to 12.

Not 18, not 15, but 12. The extreme of extreme fear.

But I've been thinking about one thing recently: Last week, SharpLink bought 39,196 ETH near this figure, while Samsung and SK just announced they're pouring $1.3 trillion into AI semiconductors. What retail sees is panic; what big money sees is what?

This week is actually not ideal for making directional judgments, for a simple reason: the truly important information hasn't been released yet. On Tuesday, the US and Iran are negotiating in Doha, and they just attacked each other near the Strait of Hormuz again on Saturday — no one knows if this ceasefire can hold. On Thursday, the nonfarm payrolls report will be released early (due to the July 4th holiday). The strength of the employment data will directly affect whether Warsh raises rates. When rate hike expectations shift, the dollar, gold, and BTC all move in response.

Today is also the last day of the month, and fund managers need to rebalance. At times like this, liquidity is thin, capital flows are chaotic, and many price movements are noise rather than signals.

Historically, when the FGI drops below 20, it has often been a time window for mid-to-long-term position building. However, in June 2022, the FGI also fell to single digits, and BTC still dropped further before bottoming out. Now with the added variable of geopolitics, no one can guarantee how quickly sentiment will clear.

My approach is: keep my current positions unchanged and wait for Thursday's nonfarm payrolls to land before reassessing.

How is everyone planning to handle this week?