QCP: The repeated US-Iran tensions have heightened risk aversion, and crypto market volatility continues to rise.

Deep Tide TechFlow News, June 29 — According to the latest QCP report, the situation remains unstable even after the US and Iran signed a Memorandum of Understanding. Over the weekend, the two sides again engaged in military clashes and accused each other of violating the 60-day ceasefire agreement, casting a shadow over the prospects for further negotiations later this week. Although crude oil prices still remain largely around the $70 per barrel level, suggesting the market still holds cautious expectations that tensions will ease, oil prices still face upside risk if the supply recovery falls short of expectations.

In the crypto market, Bitcoin and Ethereum are approaching key support levels. Demand for downside protection is increasing, driving implied volatility higher, especially for Bitcoin put options expiring in July with strike prices in the $55,000 to $58,000 range, where demand is particularly notable. At the same time, outflows from Bitcoin spot ETFs, concerns related to MicroStrategy, and pressure on US stocks continue to weigh on market sentiment. However, there is also evidence of buying for Bitcoin call options at $64,000 for mid-July, indicating that some traders have begun positioning for a potential rebound.

On the macro front, in early July, the market will focus on remarks by Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh at the European Central Bank forum, as well as ISM Manufacturing PMI and US non-farm payroll employment data. Against a backdrop of weak liquidity ahead of the holiday and ongoing uncertainty in geopolitical developments, the market is likely to remain highly volatile in the short term.