6.29 Market Analysis

❗ Trend: Bullish Bullish Bullish Bullish❗

News, Data

1. US and Iran agree to stop attacks, key negotiations to restart on Tuesday

2. Special Event: Wednesday 9:30 PM – Central bank governors of Europe, UK, Canada, along with Kevin Warsh, hold a global central bank forum in Sintra, Portugal

Next week's data releases:

Wednesday 8:15 PM – US June ADP; 9:45 PM – US June Manufacturing PMI; 10:00 PM – US June ISM Manufacturing PMI

Thursday 8:30 PM – US June Non-Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate

Friday: US stock market closed

US Stocks

Nasdaq broke below the daily MA60 and briefly recovered, closing at 25297. The key support below is at 23826-24425. I personally think the probability of a direct move down to retest this support area is not high. There may be a rebound in tonight's after-hours trading. Combined with the positive expectation of Tuesday's negotiations, it should close higher tonight.

Technical Analysis

BTC:

After making a new low, it has been oscillating for 4 days. As the oscillation continues, the HVN has moved to the 60045 level. After the 1-hour high-volume bearish candle on June 25, the market did not continue to decline, but instead saw a high-volume rebound.

From the oscillation structure of the past few days, there is a clear bottoming pattern. The daily level shows a clear bullish divergence, MACD did not make a new low along with the price low, especially the divergence signal from RSI, all indicate the need for an upward move.

Moving Averages:

The weekly level found support at MA250, while MA5 is pressing downward, sharply compressing the oscillation range. This week is likely to choose a direction.

The daily and 12H levels, as oscillation continues, have the need to break upward through the daily MA5 and 12H MA10 respectively. However, larger timeframe moving averages are still bearish and diverging downward. Therefore, even if an upward move occurs, it will only continue after a pullback to key moving averages and supply zones, i.e., oscillating upward.

The 4H level has touched the important resistance level – MA30 in the day session, but the rejection momentum is not strong, and it has found good support at the lower edge of the oscillation box.

The support handoff at the 1H level is more evident. The downward washout is nearing its end, and the upward move may begin tonight or tomorrow.

ETH:

Basically the same as BTC, no need to elaborate. HVN has moved to 1575, this level may be the price point for the start of this upward move.

Comprehensive Analysis:

After two weeks, I resume writing market analysis and have redrawn the structural trend support and resistance that had been maintained for 2 months (see chart below). There are too many support and resistance zones in the chart, so only the nearest ones are given in text. Since I mainly trade ETH, I'll roughly guess the ETH trend – the upward move will start tonight to tomorrow. Key focus on resistance at 1657 and 1674 (the latter is more likely). After being rejected at this resistance, it will pull back to the 1604-1636 area, then continue upward to 1712 or even 1767. This upward move may see a fast rebound reaching around 1843 within 2-3 days.

Support and Resistance Zones

BTC

Support Zones: Near 59141, Near 56441, 48023-53287 (Major Zone)

Resistance Zones: 61125-62392, Near 62981, 63657-64774, 65623-67735

ETH

Support Zones: Near 1556, 1459-1533, 1338-1405, 1166-1279 (Major Zone)

Resistance Zones: 1604-1636, Near 1657, 1674-1712, 1767-1843