#Saylor暗示增持BTC

I. Core Market Data Today (June 29)

Earlier this morning, it briefly broke below $60k, hitting a low of $58,888, with a short-term quote around $59,356, a 24-hour decline of over 1%; there have been intraday fluctuations recovering back above $60k, with 24-hour liquidations across the network totaling about $173 million, primarily long position liquidations ($140 million), concentrated short-term selling pressure and weak sentiment.

Key Resistance/Support Levels:

- Upper resistance: $60k, $60,500–$61,000 range
- Lower key support: $59,000, $58,200, further looking at the psychological and institutional observation range of $55,000

II. Core Downside Drivers

1. ETF outflow drag: Continuous net outflows from spot ETFs over recent days (cumulative approximately $4.4 billion); sporadic small inflows on a single day are insufficient to reverse the weak capital trend, with institutions' phased reduction and rebalancing suppressing buying pressure;
2. Repeated shifts in macro liquidity expectations: The delay in the Fed's rate cut timeline, fluctuations in the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields, and the pullback in U.S. tech stocks all drive a decline in risk appetite, with high-risk assets like crypto under similar pressure;
3. Concentrated cascading of short-term contracts: Key integer level breaches trigger stop-loss chain selling, amplifying intraday volatility;
4. Growing divergence in market views: Some institutions see an adjustment to the $55,000 range (Q3), with extreme bearish views going as low as $40,000, intensifying wait-and-see sentiment; meanwhile, long-term perspectives emphasize the halving supply contraction and the institutional allocation narrative, which have not completely failed, but the realization cycle is delayed.

III. Short-term & Medium-to-Long-Term Views

- Short-term (intraday / a few days): Weak consolidation as the main theme, with limited rebounds
$60,000 has shifted from prior support to strong resistance; without clear signals such as sustained ETF net inflows or improvement in U.S. stock risk appetite, rebounds are mostly corrective pulses, prone to repeated pullbacks; suitable for waiting and watching, strictly avoid heavy chasing of long positions or high-leverage trading, as short-term trading has very little margin for error.
- Medium-term (weeks to quarters): Grinding out a bottom, awaiting verification signals
Need to track the return of consecutive ETF net inflows, the timeline for the Fed's rate cut, and on-chain data on holding addresses/miner selling pressure narrowing; the $55,000 area is regarded by many institutions as an important observation bottom range. If it stabilizes effectively, it will form the basis for a recovery; otherwise, it will further test lower levels.
- Long-term narrative level
Bitcoin's halving scarcity, institutional asset allocation, and digital gold safe-haven logic are still upheld by some long-term capital, but under short-term liquidity and sentiment suppression, the realization cycle is extended, which cannot be used as a basis for short-term bottom fishing.