6.29 Market Analysis

1. Daily Chart Review and Trading Logic
After the price dipped to the 60k level, a rebound was expected to follow the upward channel. However, after hitting the dense resistance area, the anticipated second retest rebound failed; after the market fell back to the lower support of the fan channel, the daily chart pierced the middle band and then broke down.
A short position was suggested at the 65,000 level; both the middle band and the rebound high are shorting zones. Currently, the daily chart shows consecutive real bearish candles with low volume on the decline. In the weak consolidation, there are still opportunities to enter short positions near the previous low.

2. Weekly Chart Long-Term Divergence
The 60k area is the weekly support where the previous bull run started, and some investors have been DCA-ing here for 2–4 years long-term.
Author's view: Ordinary people with emotional positions cannot withstand the violent volatility and shakeouts of BTC and are easily shaken out. It is not recommended to rush into bottom-fishing or DCA long-term currently.

3. Capital and Cycle Logic
Previous logic confirmed: In June, capital continued to flow out due to the World Cup, weakening the crypto market.
The outflowing funds have no loyalty and will not quickly return even after the World Cup ends; historically, the crypto market has mostly been in a bear market during World Cup cycles.

4. Key Price Level Predictions (Author's Personal Judgment)
◦ Short-term shorting range: 61,000–61,500
◦ Short-term support at 58,000; if broken, wait for a wick to 52,000–53,000 for a long opportunity.
◦ It is predicted that the current support at 59,000 will likely be broken.

5. Large Cycle (Monthly Chart) Prediction
This month will close with a bearish monthly candle. In July, the market is expected to dip and wick to around 52,000, forming a temporary bottom, and only then will there be opportunities for short-term long positions. However, the overall bear market is not over.

6. Practical Position Management Discipline
Only use 5%–10% small positions for short-term long attempts; do not go heavy on bottom-fishing, do not rush to enter; slow is fast.

7. Current Market Status: Consecutive real bearish candles with low volume on the decline. The rebound strength is limited, and the bottom has not yet been seen.