6.29 Monday afternoon XRP thoughts

Today the overall market is bearish and weakening. Bitcoin broke through the $60k mark, dragging XRP down in tandem. The current price is hovering narrowly around $1.11, slightly lower. XRP is more resilient than other altcoins due to unique compliance advantages, but it still cannot move against the trend independently and fully follows the market's emotional fluctuations.
The macro environment continues to exert bearish pressure. The Fed's hawkish expectations are pushing up the dollar and bond yields. Funds are generally withdrawing from high-risk crypto assets, market panic is spreading, and most coins are declining simultaneously.
Technically, the price remains under pressure below the 20-day and 50-day moving averages. Every small rebound is met with overall market selling pressure and declines. The short-term key support is $1.04, an important mid-term defense level. If it breaks, downward space opens up. Strong resistance above is at $1.20 and $1.27, where a large amount of previous trapped positions are concentrated. Without regulatory catalysts, a significant breakout is unlikely.
In the short term, only institutional long-term funds underpin the price, lacking short-term incremental buying. Before the market stabilizes, the rebound strength is limited, maintaining an overall weak range-bound pattern, with a higher probability of repeatedly testing support below. Long-term trends depend on the progress of U.S. crypto regulatory legislation, while short-term trends are still dominated by Bitcoin's market.
Operational suggestion: short at 1.055-1.065, target 1.035, if broken then see 1.015$BTC $ETH $SOL