June 29 BTC/ETH Mishi Strategy

Today's news has several key points worth focusing on, layered for analysis.
At the macro level, multiple major Wall Street banks are collectively bearish on the euro, with JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, and Bank of New York Mellon all expecting the euro to fall more than 3% over the next year. The core driver is the Federal Reserve's Waller taking a tough stance against inflation, combined with the Middle East conflict pushing up oil prices, which strengthens demand for the dollar. Against the backdrop of a stronger dollar, risk assets are under overall pressure, and the crypto market is no exception. Jin10
On-chain risk signals: A whale on Hyperliquid holds a $16.3 million BTC long position with 40x leverage, with a liquidation price at $57,640, approximately 3.5% from the current price. Once Bitcoin falls below $58k, this long position will trigger forced liquidation, and the resulting cascade effect should not be underestimated. This is the most critical potential risk point to watch in today's market. Jin10
However, there are also positive catalysts worth looking forward to. SpaceX will be officially included in the Nasdaq 100 Index on July 7, setting a record for the fastest inclusion in history, having been listed for less than a month. JPMorgan estimates this inclusion will bring about $4.3 billion in passive fund inflows, with related ETFs and index funds beginning synchronized allocation after the close on July 6. This is a positive signal for tech stock sentiment, indirectly benefiting the crypto market.

Additionally, Yili Hua, founder of Liquid Capital, stated that this is the third wave of decline since October 2021. According to wave theory and cyclical patterns, this is the last major drop for Bitcoin. July to August should be the best time to buy the bottom, possibly even the most worthwhile opportunity in the next three years. This judgment aligns with Mishi's view of a large-scale double bottom, and can be used as a reference but not as a basis for action. Following the plan is the core principle.

BTC: The technical picture remains very clear. The 580-585 range below is a support platform confirmed by three touches, and the market showed early resistance near this level during the night session. The 608-618 range above is the near-term resistance. The low of 586 was confirmed in the early session, and it is recommended to use it as a defense, adding long positions to test the resistance above. A fourth touch of a three-touch platform reduces confidence, so I will attempt positions where the market has shown early feedback, aiming for the long trend to push above 618. The condition for a large-scale double bottom to be valid is the recovery of the 62,888 neckline. Special attention: 57,640 is the liquidation line for the on-chain whale. If the price drops to this level, it could trigger a chain liquidation cascade. Don't panic when that happens; it may actually be a better opportunity to catch the dip. (See chart for details)

ETH: Following yesterday's post strategy, focus on the performance around the midline of the core support area of 1533-1575, using the lower rail as defense. From last night to today, the price has repeatedly engaged in long-short battles around the midline of 1550, with the market performing as expected. Follow the plan. It is recommended to add long positions between the midline and the upper rail, using last night's low of 1545 or the lower rail of 1530 as defense, with the target being the unbroken level of 1607 from yesterday, and further up to the 1639-1669 range. For short positions, look for participation at the resistance levels shown on the chart. (See chart for details)