Micron, SK Hynix, or Samsung? The HBM competition landscape in the AI storage era has fully escalated.

On June 24, 2026, Micron Technology (NASDAQ: MU) turned in an earnings report worthy of being recorded in semiconductor history. For the third quarter of fiscal 2026, ended May 28, 2026, Micron generated revenue of $41.46 billion, up 346% year over year and up 74% quarter over quarter—marking the fifth consecutive quarter to set a new historical record. GAAP net profit reached $28.24 billion, diluted EPS was $24.67, and on a non-GAAP basis net profit was $28.86 billion with EPS of $25.11.

Even more eye-catching for the market was Micron’s consolidated gross margin of 84.9%, up 10 percentage points quarter over quarter and double versus the same period last year. The figure is enough to stand alongside the profitability levels of premium consumer brands. After the earnings release, Micron’s stock surged 15.78% in after-hours trading, to $1,213.96. Micron’s guidance for the fourth fiscal quarter also came in above expectations: revenue is expected to be approximately $50 billion (±$1 billion), gross margin around 86%, and EPS around $31 (±$1)—all three metrics would once again set the highest records since the company’s 48-year founding.

The true significance of this earnings report is not in the “blowout” numbers from the past three months, but in what it reveals: the storage-chip industry is undergoing a structural identity reshaping—from “cyclical commodities” to “AI core infrastructure.” During the earnings call, Micron CEO Sanjay Mehrotra said plainly, “The strategic value of memory in the AI era is being redefined, and the tight supply-demand situation in the industry will continue beyond 2027.”

Micron: A Valuation Reset From “Cyclical Stock” to “AI Infrastructure”

The data from Micron’s Q3 2026 earnings is already enough to make the point. Micron’s $41.46 billion in revenue not only significantly exceeded the market’s expectation of $35.84 billion, but also jumped more than threefold from $9.3 billion in the same period last year. GAAP net profit rose more than 13 times year over year, and the scale of quarterly earnings has already surpassed the level of the full year during the industry’s low point.

The surge in profitability is even more intuitive. Consolidated gross margin rose from 37.7% in the same period last year to 84.6%, while operating margin expanded from 23.3% to 80.4%. Gross margins across all four business units are at elevated levels: cloud storage 83%, core data center 87%, mobile and client 87%, and automotive and embedded 79%. Micron’s data center-related business revenue annualized run rate has already exceeded $100 billion, and data center SSD revenue has doubled quarter over quarter, topping $5 billion.

Micron’s financial health also completed a historic turnaround. In this quarter, Micron’s cash flow from operating activities reached $25.388 billion, and adjusted free cash flow exceeded $18.3 billion. Long-term debt was reduced by more than 63% versus the start of the fiscal year, and the overall financial position shifted from net debt at the start of the year to a strong safety structure with net cash of $20.3 billion. Inventory for the full quarter increased by only $0.3 billion in absolute terms, and the inventory-to-revenue ratio fell sharply from 34.6% last quarter to 20.7%, directly confirming from the financial side that product supply is falling short of demand in the industry.

In the core battleground for AI storage—HBM—Micron’s progress is especially critical. HBM4 memory chips based on 1-β DRAM technology have begun large-scale shipment to core customer platforms, and several other customers have received verification samples. The next-generation HBM4E product is under development, and is expected to reach mass production in 2027. Micron has been selected as a primary HBM supplier for NVIDIA Blackwell GPUs and the Vera Rubin AI platform; HBM4 designed specifically for Vera Rubin began shipping in March 2026. Micron’s entire 2026 HBM production capacity has been sold out under long-term contracts, and management publicly confirmed that it can currently meet only about 50% to 66% of customers’ actual demand.

From the perspective of MU stock analysis, the market’s pricing logic for Micron has fundamentally changed. The day before the earnings release (June 23), Micron’s stock reached an all-time intraday high of $1,213.56, then closed at $1,211.38. Deutsche Bank raised its price target from $1,500 to $1,550 and maintained a “Buy” rating. Susquehanna also raised its target price from $1,750 to $2,000. FactSet estimates indicate that Micron’s 2026 operating profit could rank fifth in the S&P 500, and is expected to jump to third in 2027, behind only NVIDIA and Alphabet.

SK hynix: The Balancing Art of HBM Dominance and Capacity Expansion

If Micron’s earnings were “above expectations,” then SK hynix’s results were “dominance-level.” In the first quarter of fiscal 2026 (ended March 31, 2026), SK hynix recorded operating revenue of 52.5763 trillion Korean won (approximately 244.11 billion yuan or 244.11 billion yuan in RMB terms), up 198% year over year and up 60% quarter over quarter. Operating profit reached 37.6103 trillion Korean won, up 405% year over year and up 96% quarter over quarter. Operating profit margin was as high as 72%, setting the highest record since the company was founded. Net profit was approximately 40.35 trillion Korean won, with a net profit margin of about 77%.

In HBM—the crucial track that determines industry voice—SK hynix remains firmly in the top seat. According to data released by Counterpoint Research on June 25, 2026, in Q1 2026 the global HBM market share by revenue was distributed as follows: SK hynix took the first place with 58%, while Samsung Electronics and Micron each accounted for 21%. Although SK hynix’s share declined from 69% in Q1 2025, it still commands half the market. Visible Alpha’s statistics show SK hynix’s market share at about 51.4%, Samsung at 21.2%, and Micron at 27.4%. While different institutions use different metric definitions, SK hynix’s leading position is certain.

SK hynix’s technology roadmap is also aggressive. The company will fully launch the world’s first LPDDR6 DRAM using the sixth-generation 10-nanometer (1c) process. In the HBM segment, the company will further strengthen its comprehensive execution capabilities in integration performance, yield, quality, and supply stability. The company said it will advance infrastructure construction and the introduction of core equipment such as EUV, with capacity ramp-up centered on its Cheongju M15X facility and the Yongin cluster. At the earnings meeting, SK hynix’s head of sales and marketing for HBM said that customer demand for HBM chips over the next three years far exceeds the company’s supply capacity. Institutions estimate that SK hynix’s full-year 2026 operating profit will exceed $100 billion.

Samsung Electronics: The “Fire and Ice” Behind a 756% Profit Surge

Samsung Electronics’ Q1 2026 earnings report also set historical records for Korean companies. The company achieved revenue of 133.9 trillion Korean won (approximately $89.7 billion), up 69% year over year and up 43% quarter over quarter. Operating profit reached 57.2 trillion Korean won (approximately 264.3 billion yuan), up 185% quarter over quarter and up 756% year over year. Net profit was 47.23 trillion Korean won, up 474.3% year over year. Operating profit of 57.2 trillion Korean won not only far exceeded the average brokerage forecast of 45.66 trillion Korean won, but also exceeded Samsung Electronics’ total operating profit for all of 2025 of 43.6 trillion Korean won in a single quarter.

The semiconductor business (DS division) is the biggest highlight of this report. In Q1, the DS division achieved revenue of 81.7 trillion Korean won, up 225% year over year and up 86% quarter over quarter; operating profit reached 53.7 trillion Korean won, surging 47.82x year over year and up 227.4% quarter over quarter, accounting for 93.4% of the company’s total operating profit. Within that, memory business revenue was about 74.8 trillion Korean won, up 292% year over year. Samsung Electronics said in its earnings report that its memory business “met AI demand with high added value under limited supply conditions, breaking the quarterly sales record.”

In HBM, Samsung is accelerating its catch-up. Its HBM-related revenue grew more than threefold year over year, and it expects full-year 2026 HBM sales to be more than triple those of 2025. HBM4 began global first mass production shipment in February 2026, exclusively for NVIDIA’s Vera Rubin platform. HBM4E is planned to deliver the first batch of samples in Q2 2026; its per-pin transfer rate is 16Gbps, and total bandwidth exceeds 4.0TB/s—about a 21% performance improvement versus HBM4. Samsung expects that starting from Q3 2026, HBM4 revenue will account for more than 50% of total HBM revenue, and it plans for HBM4E to hold over 50% share of the global market in 2027.

However, beneath Samsung’s “golden era,” there is also a clear split. Driven down by rising prices of memory chips, weakness is evident across end markets such as smartphones, TVs, and home appliances, making the “fire-and-ice” divide between chip business and finished goods business increasingly pronounced. In Q1, the average selling price increases for DRAM and NAND both exceeded 90%, which also means sharply rising cost pressure for the end divisions. The head of Samsung’s memory business acknowledged, “The profit margin of traditional DRAM is actually higher than that of HBM.” This counterintuitive phenomenon reveals the special nature of this storage cycle: once AI training demand exploded, procurement volumes for traditional server DRAM surged as well, and the supply-demand gap for standard DRAM is even tighter than for HBM.

HBM: The Core Track That Determines the Rankings of the Big Three Over the Next Three Years

HBM (high bandwidth memory) is the most critical variable for understanding this round’s memory super cycle. The growth logic for HBM memory AI demand is clear and strong: AI accelerators’ demand for memory bandwidth and capacity rises exponentially, and HBM has become a “hard currency” that is even more scarce than GPUs.

From the market size perspective, SEMI China data shows that in 2026 the HBM market is expected to grow 58% to $54.6 billion, accounting for nearly 40% of the DRAM market. Even though the three major original equipment manufacturers have directed 70% of incremental and re-allocatable capacity toward HBM, the HBM capacity gap remains as high as 50% to 60%. Overseas major memory manufacturers’ 2026 capacity has already been booked out in advance.

From the evolution of demand drivers, TrendForce analysis indicates that in 2026 HBM demand growth will be mainly driven by capacity upgrades in AI ASICs, with HBM capacity per AI chip rising significantly from 96GB/192GB to 216GB/288GB. Although the HBM capacity per GPU in the NVIDIA Rubin platform is expected to be similar to the prior generation, the increase in shipment volumes will continue to pull up overall demand. Micron expects the global HBM market size to grow from about $35 billion in 2025 to about $100 billion in 2028, a CAGR of roughly 40%.

Competition among the three manufacturers over HBM technology has entered an intense stage. Samsung plans to sample HBM4E in Q2 2026, making it the first company globally to announce this plan. SK hynix is betting on HBM4E and 1c process LPDDR6 DRAM, announcing that HBM4E entered the customer sampling stage in the second half of 2026 and is targeting mass production in 2027. Micron’s HBM4—designed specifically for NVIDIA’s next-generation Vera Rubin architecture—has achieved mass shipments, and HBM4E R&D is progressing smoothly, with mass production expected in 2027.

From a market share trend perspective, TrendForce expects that SK hynix’s full-year 2026 HBM market share will be maintained at around 50%, Samsung at about 28%, and Micron at around 22%. Samsung’s HBM4 certification is progressing fastest, with mass production expected to begin after completion in the second quarter. Although SK hynix’s lead remains significant, Samsung and Micron are accelerating efforts to narrow the gap.

The Resonance Between the Memory Super Cycle and the Cryptocurrency Market

The cryptocurrency market as of June 29, 2026 is in a period of adjustment. Bitcoin has broken below the $60,000 level, with the latest price at $59,356.3 per coin after dipping as low as $58,888 earlier in the morning. Ethereum briefly fell below $1,550 per coin. Coinglass data shows that in the past 24 hours, more than 60,000 people in the cryptocurrency market were liquidated, with total liquidation amounting to $173 million. According to Gate market data, BTC/USDT is currently $58,989.5, down 2.01% over the last 24 hours.

This market movement forms an intriguing contrast with the upcycle in the memory chip industry. On the one hand, the continued expansion of AI computing infrastructure—including the memory chip super cycle—provides a logic for underlying hardware support that benefits cryptocurrency mining and AI-related token projects; on the other hand, the overall weakness in the cryptocurrency market, to some extent, reflects a warming risk-off sentiment among global risk assets.

From a broader perspective, there is an implicit capital-flow linkage between the memory chip industry and the crypto industry. When the memory giants experience explosive performance growth driven by AI demand, the capital markets’ pricing logic for hardware infrastructure is being reconsidered. After the earnings release, Micron’s market cap briefly surpassed Meta Platforms, reaching intraday highs of between $1.393 trillion and $1.418 trillion. This milestone in market capitalization signals a deepening of the revaluation of hardware companies in the AI era, and it also provides a valuation anchor for projects in the crypto industry focused on AI and infrastructure tracks.

Conclusion: Structural Change, Not a Cyclical Rebound

Micron’s fiscal 2026 Q3 revenue of $41.46 billion, SK hynix’s 72% operating margin, and Samsung’s 756% profit growth—these figures collectively point to one conclusion: this round of prosperity in the memory industry is not merely a cyclical rebound, but a structural reshaping driven by the AI computing revolution.

From supply-demand fundamentals, this judgment is supported by ample data. In 2026, the global supply-demand gaps for DRAM, NAND flash, and HBM are 4.9%, 4.2%, and 5.1% respectively—each the highest level since 2011. TrendForce data shows that in Q1 2026, the quarter-over-quarter increase in contract prices for general DRAM was 93% to 98%, and NAND contract prices rose 85% to 90% quarter over quarter. Micron management further confirmed during the earnings call that DRAM and NAND supply tightness will persist at least until 2028. The company has signed 16 strategic customer agreements, accumulating more than $22 billion in cash and related financial commitments. The agreements generally have a 5-year term, and customers cannot cancel them unilaterally. The widespread signing of long-term agreements indicates that the tight supply-demand balance has shifted from a “short-term phenomenon” to a “system-level arrangement.”

The race among the big three in HBM technology routes is still accelerating. From mass production of HBM4 to sample deliveries of HBM4E, from 1c process DRAM to 321-layer NAND, the pace of technological iteration and the scale of capital expenditures are both at historical highs. Micron expects the revenue center for the fourth fiscal quarter to be $50 billion, with gross margin around 86%; SK Hynix will advance capacity expansion centered on the Yongin cluster and Cheongju M15X; Samsung plans to maintain a sales strategy centered on AI products and seize opportunities in the PCIe Gen6 enterprise SSD market.

For investors, understanding how the competitive landscape among the three evolves is essentially understanding the pricing logic of AI-era computing infrastructure. HBM is upgrading from a “memory component” to “AI core infrastructure,” and this identity shift is reshaping the valuation framework of the entire semiconductor industry. As the cryptocurrency market is an intersection of AI technology and financial innovation, its linkage with the sentiment of memory hardware is also expected to become an important dimension worth sustained observation in the future.

FAQ

Q1: What are the key data points from Micron’s Q3 2026 earnings report?

Micron’s Q3 2026 (ended May 28, 2026) achieved revenue of $41.46 billion, up 346% year over year and up 74% quarter over quarter; GAAP net profit was $28.24 billion, with gross margin at 84.9%, all setting historical highs. The company expects Q4 revenue of approximately $50 billion, with gross margin of around 86%.

Q2: What are the market shares of the three major storage giants in HBM?

In Q1 2026, SK hynix led the HBM market with about 58% revenue share, while Samsung Electronics and Micron each accounted for about 21%. TrendForce expects SK hynix’s full-year 2026 market share to be around 50%, Samsung around 28%, and Micron around 22%.

Q3: What is the expected market size for HBM in 2026?

SEMI China data shows that the HBM market size in 2026 is expected to grow 58% to $54.6 billion, accounting for nearly 40% of the DRAM market. Although the three major original equipment manufacturers have directed 70% of incremental production capacity toward HBM, the capacity gap remains as high as 50% to 60%.

Q4: How is the current storage price increase cycle different from earlier ones?

This round of price increases is driven by structural growth in AI computing demand, not just cyclical supply-demand fluctuations. Gartner data shows that DRAM usage per AI server is 8 to 10 times that of traditional servers. Micron management confirms that the supply tightness will persist at least until 2028.

Q5: What is the relationship between the cryptocurrency market and the memory chip industry?

Both are indirectly linked through AI infrastructure investment. Memory chips are core components of AI servers, and cryptocurrency mining and AI-related token projects also rely on computing hardware. As of June 29, 2026, Bitcoin is around $59,356 and is in a period of adjustment.