BTC breaks 59K again, ETF sees seven weeks of net outflows—June 29 market analysis

BTC weakened again today, falling below $59k. As of this afternoon, BTC is trading around $59,260, with a 24-hour decline of about 1.1%. ETH followed suit, trading around $1,563. The Fear & Greed Index remains in the extreme fear zone.

Key market headwinds:

Continued ETF capital outflows. Crypto ETFs have recorded net outflows of over $2 billion for seven consecutive weeks. Last Friday alone, the spot BTC ETF saw a net outflow of approximately $445 million, bringing the monthly cumulative net outflow to around $4.06 billion.

On the macro front, the Fed maintains a hawkish stance. Although the U.S. dollar index has retreated from its highs, it has risen for two consecutive weeks. Non-yielding assets remain under pressure. U.S. stocks closed slightly lower last week, with the Nasdaq down 0.24%.

On-chain, Strategy's holdings show a paper loss of over $13 billion, and its mNAV ratio has fallen below the 1.0 threshold. Galaxy Digital's CEO noted that declining market confidence in Strategy is one of the key reasons for this downturn.

Key levels:

The upper resistance zone is 59,800–60,000, which is a strong resistance area. The primary support below is 58,500–59,000. If there is a breakdown on volume, the next level to watch is the recent low of 58,030.

Summary: Short-term bears dominate, with limited rebound strength. Keep an eye on whether the 58,500–59,000 support level can hold.