Monday Morning Jingyi’s Thoughts: The US-Iran War Has Restarted—Prioritize Shorting

Market News: The US-Iran conflict puts BTC under dual pressure
The comprehensive pause of US-Iran diplomatic negotiations, with both sides striking each other’s military strongholds, has continued to heighten geopolitical risks in the Middle East. As the risk appetite of global capital shrinks, risk exposure tightens. Investors prioritize selling high-leverage instruments such as crypto, while funds flow into traditional safe-haven assets like gold and US Treasuries.

After this round of conflict broke out, BTC repeatedly saw rapid sharp drops. Long positions across the entire network were liquidated in a concentrated manner, forming a “decline → liquidation sell-off → accelerated decline” negative feedback loop. The funding data confirms it: BTC had a net outflow of $247 million on the day. Long funds continued to exit the market. Ethereum saw only a small amount of net inflow, indicating extremely weak market bullish sentiment.

As the conflict continues to escalate and the Strait of Hormuz is effectively blocked: a surge in oil prices drives up global stagflation expectations, while expectations for a Fed rate cut are pushed back. BTC will continue to face downward pressure.

As the conflict quickly cools and negotiations are restarted: a short-term oversold rebound may appear, but the medium-term downtrend will not reverse—only a corrective short-term trading move.

From a technical structure perspective, on the 4-hour K-line level: the downtrend channel is clear, and highs and lows keep moving lower.

Starting from the historical high of 672, a one-way decline has begun. With each rebound, the rebound peak continues to decrease, and the pullback lows simultaneously set new lows. On June 24, it probed down to the key low of 580. The current price of 592 is in a weak, range-bound consolidation at low levels; rebounds have no volume, declines come with increased volume, and bears dominate the market throughout the move.

BTC short-term pressure range: 598-603
BTC short-term support range: 588; strong support at 580

ETH support at 1510, resistance at 1590

Trading Suggestions
BTC: Place short orders in the 598-603 rebound resistance range. The first target is 588. If it breaks 58030, and if the US-Iran conflict further escalates, look for downside to 570, 550, and 780.

ETH: Place short orders in the 1565-1600 rebound range. Look down to 1530. If it breaks 1510, look down to 1460 and 1340.