BTC/ETH Morning Forecast | 2026.06.29 08:50

Overall judgment today: BTC and ETH are still weak and oscillating in the morning session, not a strong reversal. Data captured around 08:53 Beijing time, BTC current price approximately 59446, 24-hour decline of about 1.18%; ETH current price approximately 1565, 24-hour decline of about 0.55%. Both are hovering at low levels, with a 1-hour recovery attempt but lacking momentum, 4-hour still suppressed by moving averages and Bollinger middle band, daily has not yet escaped the middle-lower band area after the decline. The core focus for today's market is not to chase gains, but to see if it can reclaim the short-term key level: BTC watch 59800, ETH watch 1575. Altcoins are generally defensive; only if BTC stabilizes first and ETH strengthens in sync, then local narratives can have a recovery window.

BTC: Current price approximately 59446, 24-hour range approximately 58905 ~ 60545, 24-hour volume approximately 8997 BTC, transaction volume approximately 538 million U. On the 1-hour chart, after a pullback from the 58905 area, the price remains below the 1-hour MA20 at approximately 59861, the Bollinger middle band has not been reclaimed, and the MACD is still in the weak zone, indicating that the short-term bounce has not yet turned into active offense. On the 4-hour chart, the price is oscillating near the Bollinger lower band at 59298, with MA5, MA10, and MA20 still forming resistance above 59750 ~ 60069, and volume is below the 20-bar average volume, representing a weak recovery. The daily structure remains bearish, with the daily MA20 near 62817, far from the current price; the weekly is close to the major lower band, and the monthly is also in the defensive zone above the low of 58115. Short-term support: 59000 ~ 59150, strong support: 58300 ~ 58900; short-term resistance: 59800 ~ 60070, strong resistance: 60550 ~ 60950. Today's key inflection point is set at 59800; if it fails to hold above, it remains a weak oscillation. If it breaks below 59000, prioritize defense.

ETH: Current price approximately 1565, 24-hour range approximately 1548.37 ~ 1588.82, 24-hour volume approximately 145.6K ETH, transaction volume approximately 229 million U. On the 1-hour chart, ETH is still below the 1-hour MA20 at approximately 1574 after a pullback, the Bollinger middle band has not been firmly reclaimed, the MACD is weak, and the short term is still low-level tugging. On the 4-hour chart, the price is recovering near the Bollinger lower band at 1552, with MA5, MA10, and MA20 concentrated around 1573 ~ 1578, creating dense overhead resistance. Only if it breaks back above this area with volume can it have the conditions to continue toward 1588 ~ 1600. The daily structure remains below the 20-day moving average, with the daily lower band near 1526 as the major defense area; the weekly still has support around 1505 ~ 1520, but the monthly level has not shown a clear reversal. Short-term support: 1548 ~ 1552, strong support: 1512 ~ 1526; short-term resistance: 1575 ~ 1589, strong resistance: 1600 ~ 1611. Today's key inflection point is set at 1575; only if it reclaims above it can recovery continue. If it breaks below 1548, the short term turns weak again.

Today's altcoin correlation judgment: Altcoins are defensive today; avoid chasing without confirmation. If BTC holds above 59000 and reclaims 59800, and simultaneously ETH reclaims 1575 ~ 1589, then altcoins can have localized recovery room. Focus on directions where volume returns synchronously. If BTC breaks below 59000 again, or if ETH underperforms BTC and remains below 1575, altcoin flexibility is usually suppressed, and the probability of a rally followed by a decline increases. Simply put, BTC determines the risk toggle, and ETH determines the strength of altcoin sentiment.

Public version trading principle: Do not chase today; wait for key levels to confirm first. BTC 59800 and ETH 1575 are the most important strength/weakness observation lines in the morning. If they break below the inflection point with volume, prioritize reducing positions and lowering trading frequency. If key resistance is reclaimed, then assess whether recovery can continue. The public version only provides market rhythm and risk lines. For the complete observation pool levels and single-coin strategies, please refer to the subscription flash update or group documents.

Risk disclaimer: The above content is only market scenario analysis and does not constitute investment advice. Digital assets are highly volatile; pay attention to position sizing and stop-loss.