Monday Morning | Jingyi’s Trading Outlook: US-Iran War Resumes, Prioritize Shorting

**Market Brief:** The US-Iran conflict creates dual pressure on BTC
Diplomatic talks between the US and Iran are fully suspended; both sides attack each other’s military strongholds. Geopolitical risk in the Middle East continues to heat up. The risk exposure of global capital contracts proactively—prioritizing the sell-off of high-leverage instruments such as crypto, while funds flow into traditional safe-haven assets like gold and US Treasuries.

After this round of conflict erupted, BTC repeatedly saw rapid plunges. Across the whole network, long contracts were liquidated in a concentrated manner, forming a negative feedback loop of “decline → liquidation sell-off → accelerated decline.” The fund data confirms this: BTC recorded a net outflow of $247 million on the day. Long funds continue to leave; Ethereum sees only a small inflow. Market appetite for going long is extremely weak.

With the conflict escalating further and the Strait of Hormuz being blocked, the surge in oil prices boosts global stagflation expectations, and Fed rate-cut expectations are delayed. BTC will continue to move lower under pressure.

As the conflict quickly cools down and negotiations restart, a short-term oversold rebound may appear. However, the medium-term downtrend will not reverse—only a short-term corrective market is expected.

From a technical-structure perspective, on the 4-hour K-line timeframe the trend shows a clear downward channel, with highs and lows continuously moving lower.

Starting from a unilateral decline from the historical high at 672, each rebound high keeps getting lower. The pullback lows are refreshed in sync. On June 24, it probed the key low of 580. The current price of 592 is in a low-level weak consolidation. Rebounds show no volume, while declines show increasing volume—bears dominate the market throughout.

**BTC short-term pressure range:** 598–603
**BTC short-term support range:** 588; strong support at 580

**ETH support:** 1510; **ETH resistance:** 1590

**Trading Suggestions**
For BTC: Place shorts with resistance in the 598–603 zone, with the first target at 588. If it breaks 58030, and if the US-Iran conflict further escalates, look lower to 570, 550, and 780.

For ETH: Place shorts with resistance in the 1565–1600 zone, with the downside at 1530. If it breaks 1510, then look down to 1460 and 1340.