Objective positioning of the crypto market cycle at the end of June 2026

It is neither a full bull market nor a pure bear market, but rather a period of deep correction and consolidation within a major bull run, commonly referred to in the industry as a "bull market retracement / mid-bull adjustment."

I. Full cycle review

1. 2023—Oct 2025: The rising phase of this full bull market
Bitcoin surged from $15k to an all-time high of $126k, with a total increase of over 7 times. Altcoins like ETH and SOL doubled, marking a standard halving bull run.

2. Oct 2025—present: The correction period after the bull market peak
Since the high, BTC has retraced nearly 50%, ETH has fallen over 33%, the global fear index has dropped into extreme fear territory, institutional ETF funds continue to flow out, and off-exchange incremental capital is on the sidelines. The market looks like a bear market, but in essence, it is just a major shakeout after the bull market rally.

II. Why is it not a real bear market?

Real bear markets (2018, 2022) have two characteristics:

• A drawdown of 70%–85% from the peak;

• On-chain activity collapses, and long-term holders massively sell at a loss.

But now:
✅ BTC's three-year cycle remains significantly in profit overall; whales and institutional accumulation addresses have not liquidated in bulk;
✅ Total market cap remains above $2.2 trillion, far above the bottom of the previous bear market;
✅ It's just that funds have flowed to US stock AI companies, leaving crypto in a zero-sum game—not a fundamental collapse of the industry.

III. Current market conditions (June 29, 2026)

1. Bitcoin is repeatedly grinding and oscillating in the $59k–$64k range, liquidating both longs and shorts on futures, with frequent liquidations;

2. The market is experiencing a K-shaped divergence: funds are concentrated in Bitcoin as a safe haven, while most altcoins continue to decline slowly, making it hard for a broad rally;

3. The altcoin season index has been below the 75 threshold for a long time. A full small-cap coin bull market is not coming soon; only sporadic narrative-driven micro-cap coins see short-term pulses;

4. Macro pressure is the core: delayed Fed rate cut expectations, relatively high US Treasury yields, overall risk assets are being drained of liquidity, making it difficult for crypto to stage a trending rally.

IV. Outlook for the future (consensus among major institutions)

1. Second half of 2026: Mainly bottoming and consolidation, unlikely to immediately enter a major bull run
Likely to repeatedly test support at $55k–$60k, grinding the bottom and shaking out weak hands. Occasional bounces will lack sustainability, with mostly futures scalping activity.

2. 2027: The current adjustment ends, and a second upward leg begins
Once rate cuts materialize and capital flows back, the market will restart and challenge previous highs;

3. Before the 2028 halving: The next full mania bull market will arrive.

V. Practical summary

1. Spot: This is a window for bottom-fishing during the bull market correction, but not an inflection point for an immediate rally. Suitable for phased dollar-cost averaging, not a lump-sum bet;

2. Futures: The current range-bound market liquidates both long and short positions, posing extremely high risk—this is also the main reason for the frequent liquidations across the entire market recently;

3. Altcoins: 90% of coins will find it difficult to return to their previous highs. Do not blindly buy the dip on obscure small-cap coins.