The World Cup knockout stage has just begun, with a $1.1 million prize pool released. Kalshi's valuation has surged to $40 billion, and Polymarket is under investigation—the prediction market is undergoing a structural fission of "compliance divergence."

Capital is pouring in: the World Cup has transformed the prediction market from a fringe topic into a traffic gateway, with single-day trading volume and user participation hitting records. But the regulatory rift behind it is also widening. Polymarket is being targeted by the CFTC, while Kalshi has seized the opportunity to obtain a compliance license and expand World Cup trading. The valuation gap between the two paths is widening.

Compliance means costs, restrictions, and slower product iteration, but it also allows access to traditional financial liquidity. Platforms of the on-chain type, on the other hand, are attracting retail investors with high prize pools and fast pace, betting on the window before regulations are implemented.

The risk is: once the World Cup hype fades, can the prediction market retain users? The compliance path may turn platforms into "licensed casinos" rather than decentralized information markets. If the on-chain path encounters regulatory tightening, liquidity will be drained instantly.

At this stage, the prediction track is more like a "compliance arbitrage" race—whoever can scale up in the regulatory gray zone will have the opportunity to define the next set of rules.

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