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BTC & ETH 6.29-7.3 Long-Term Layout - Shi Yuan's View
Long-Term Trend Analysis:
BTC and ETH face multiple layers of resistance on the weekly level, with each rebound unable to hold key resistance levels. The momentum of bullish buying continues to decline, and all rebounds are only mid-term corrective phases within a downtrend. Next week, the overall bearish trend will not reverse. The medium-to-long-term downward channel is fully open. All rebounds provide opportunities for long-term short entries at high levels. Do not try to bottom-fish against the trend on the left side; follow the trend and hold shorts throughout. ETH's price is relatively weaker than BTC, with greater downside elasticity, making shorting ETH more cost-effective.
Bearish News:
1. U.S. inflation data rebounded, dashed hopes for an interest rate cut this year, high Treasury yields, and tightening liquidity continues to suppress the crypto market.
2. SEC regulation continues to tighten, BTC and ETH spot ETFs have seen continuous large net outflows, with institutions consistently reducing positions and exiting.
3. Funds flow into U.S. AI stocks and gold as safe havens; crypto market lacks new capital inflows, and the narrative of Bitcoin as a digital store of value has failed.
4. The ETH/BTC ratio is weakening; ETH faces ongoing selling pressure from staking unlocks, and whales and miners continue to dump.
5. This week's U.S. inflation and employment data are expected to be hawkish, options bullish positions are shrinking, and a decline could trigger a cascade of long liquidations.
6. Global crypto regulation is tightening; over-the-counter funds are on the sidelines, with no buying support during declines.
Long-Term Trading Suggestions:
BTC
Open short positions in batches within the range: 60300-61800
Defense level: 62200
First long-term target: 59000
Second long-term target: 57500
Ultimate long-term target: 55000
ETH
Open short positions in batches within the range: 1690-1780
Defense level: 1790
First long-term target: 1640
Second long-term target: 1600
Ultimate long-term target: 1520$BTC $ETH