Jingyi's Trend Outlook for June 29 - July 3

This week, BTC continued the low-range consolidation pattern following the overall decline in mid-to-late June, with the core trading range locked between 583-610. The weekly candle closed as a small bearish candle, with a weekly amplitude of about 4.7% and a slight weekly decline of 1.1%. The price action was highly correlated with ETH, exhibiting characteristics of "seeking support on dips, facing resistance on rebounds, and repeatedly grinding the bottom."

I. News Overview
1. Hawkish Fed expectations suppress the market
The May PCE YoY rate of 4.1% hit a three-year high, pushing the probability of a September rate hike to nearly 50%. Expectations for a rate cut within the year have essentially disappeared. The U.S. dollar index and Treasury yields remain elevated, and institutions continue to reduce their holdings of crypto assets. The market expects July to maintain high interest rates, with long capital exiting early, putting pressure on BTC's rebound.

2. Continued large outflows from BTC spot ETFs
U.S. spot ETFs have sustained the redemption trend from June, with average daily outflows exceeding $300 million. No new institutional inflows, only marginal support from retail short-term funds, resulting in insufficient upward momentum.

3. Weak U.S. stocks drag the market
The Nasdaq and tech stocks are declining in a volatile manner, with market risk appetite low. BTC and U.S. tech stocks show strong correlation, making it difficult for BTC to stage an independent rebound.

II. Comprehensive Technical Review (4-hour timeframe)
1. Range & Moving Averages: Under pressure from medium- and long-term moving averages, strong resistance at 61,000 and strong support at 58,300, consolidating in a low-range box pattern without a breakout signal.
2. MACD: Indicator running below the waterline, briefly forming a golden cross before turning bearish again. The medium-term bearish trend remains unchanged, with only slight short-term repair.
3. KDJ: Indicator oscillating back and forth between high and low ranges, with balanced bullish and bearish forces and no directional guidance for a unilateral move.
4. Volume & Price: Volume increases on declines and decreases on rallies, with the long side lacking volume support for a counterattack. No signs of reversal for now.

III. Same-Period ETH Correlation Comparison
ETH also experienced a low-range consolidation between 1,533 and 1,610, fully following BTC's movement, with a slightly larger decline (weekly drop of 1.4%). Ether ETF redemptions were larger in scale, and the chart showed higher elasticity, but it was still suppressed by macro liquidity and failed to stage an independent trend.

IV. Key Support/Resistance Levels for the Week
Strong Resistance: 610
Short-term Resistance: 605, 60k round number
Short-term Support: 590
Strong Support: 583–589

V. Jingyi's Summary and Short-term Outlook

1. Core Conclusion for the Week
Overall, the market is in a weak bottom-grinding phase under macro liquidity tightening. Bearish logic (rate hike expectations, ETF redemptions) continues to dominate, with a lack of positive catalysts. The support at 583 remains solid for now, but overhead selling pressure is heavy. Without an external catalyst, it is difficult to break through the resistance at 610. The market is entering a waiting period for policy data, with volatility continuing to narrow.
2. Key Points for Subsequent Observation
① The July FOMC meeting statement: if it signals a rate cut, it could open room for a rebound; if it remains hawkish, the 583 support level faces a risk of being broken.
② Spot ETF fund flows: a halt in redemptions and a shift to net inflows are necessary conditions for a reversal.
③ The effectiveness of the 583 support level: once it breaks down with volume, the next target is around 560.
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