July Macro Outlook: Ignore the Calendar, Focus Only on the Market's Conviction

Let's talk about the overall rhythm of July's market
This month is packed with key data—Nonfarm Payrolls, CPI, Fed rate decision, GDP, PCE—all released in a concentrated period.

Anyone trading knows that when data clusters, it's hard to grasp the rhythm
Market variables update quickly, and as soon as you've sorted out a judgment, a new data point forces you to rethink.

I don't recommend obsessing over the economic calendar
Don't dwell on data release times; focus on the actual market movement after the data hits.
At this stage, Nonfarm Payrolls continue to strengthen, and rate cut expectations keep weakening.
With inflation stubbornly high, the logic that easing drives a rally is hard to justify.

If the Fed remains hawkish at the end of the month, markets that were lifted by easing expectations will need to be repriced.
Macro volatility will directly impact BTC and ETH price action.

For practical trading, just watch three key points:
After a bearish drop, is there fresh capital stepping in to absorb?
After a bullish spike, can the rebound sustain itself?
During a surge, is it genuine capital rotation or a trap leading to a pullback?

Objectively speaking, it's hard to see a smooth directional trend in July.
The month will likely be dominated by repeated oscillation, constantly testing support levels, with frequent long-short shifts. Short-term recovery does not mean trend reversal.

The market generally follows BTC's direction; when Bitcoin oscillates lower, ETH struggles to stage an independent rally.
If data releases only trigger a brief spike, followed by a rapid decline under pressure, there is no basis for strength—don't blindly go long.

During data-heavy periods, don't try to predict the market subjectively. Don't let short-term market sentiment sway you.
July's core trading approach:
Ignore the news calendar; only watch the market's real strength after data is released.