On June 28, Bank of America Securities’ Chief Strategist Hartnett cited three thresholds that could trigger a “full risk-off” this summer in its latest “Flow of Funds Report”: the Mag7 ETF breaking below $60, USD/JPY falling to below 110, and the yield curve inverting again. None of the three conditions has been triggered yet, but the signals are already building. Currently, U.S. stock funds are seeing net outflows of $8.5 billion, the first time since March, after a historic net inflow of $119.2 billion. The ongoing underperformance of hyperscale cloud providers relative to chip stocks—via a widening divergence—is pushing the sustainability of AI capital expenditure to the center of the market debate: Apple raising MacBook prices and Microsoft raising Xbox prices are both directly tied to rising memory costs. Vera Rubin rack memory prices have risen cumulatively by 435%, and Goldman Sachs predicts that AI capital expenditure could reach as much as $1.4 trillion by 2027. The core question Hartnett keeps asking is—how much more do cloud providers need to fall before the market starts pricing in cuts to capital expenditure?

U.S. equity fund flows have already turned earlier: liquidity flowing out of tech giants is moving into cyclical assets such as semiconductors, small- and mid-cap stocks, housing, and REITs, which the market interprets as an early rush of expectations for a policy focus shift toward “affordability.” At the level of major asset classes, Hartnett believes gold below $4,000 still offers strong allocation value, and going long on the long end of U.S. Treasuries is currently the most contrarian long-term trade; the U.S. dollar is for short-term holding rather than long-term allocation, and his strategic stance is to go long on emerging markets over the long term. Since the Federal Reserve chair, Warsh, took office on May 22, U.S. Treasuries have risen cumulatively by 3.2%, while stocks have fallen by 1.6%, with bonds clearly outperforming. #0成本拿2股SK海力士