Bitcoin bottom not 30k-40k? My 3 probability scenarios revealed

Many people in the market are discussing where $BTC the true bottom of this bear cycle will actually land. Quite a few investors believe that 30k to 40k USD would be the most reasonable support zone, because the key cost areas and psychological levels from the past are all concentrated here.
But the market often does not develop according to the majority's expectations. When everyone is waiting for the same price, the real bottom may not appear there.
From my perspective, there are three possible scenarios for Bitcoin's future bottom. The first is a stop near 60k USD, which indicates that the overall market is still quite strong, with institutional capital continuously absorbing, and every pullback quickly absorbed by buying pressure. However, I estimate the probability of this scenario to be about 20%.
The second is the widely anticipated range of 30k to 40k USD, which is indeed a relatively reasonable technical level and a price where many are ready to enter and position. I assign this range a probability of about 25%.
As for what I consider the most likely scenario, it would be a break below everyone's expectations, directly down to around 25k USD, even completing the final washout during extreme market panic. I estimate the probability of this scenario to be about 55%. History tells us that in every bull-bear transition, the market often uses the most brutal way to eliminate impatient investors.
Of course, this is just my personal probability assessment of different scenarios, not a prediction of future prices. No one can be 100% accurate in the investment market. What truly matters is not guessing the bottom, but doing proper capital allocation and risk management, having corresponding strategies at different price ranges, rather than betting all hopes on a single number.