High interest rate environment remains unchanged, short-term positives hard to reverse Bitcoin's downward macro cycle
Expiration pressure weak oscillation: BTC 60100 slightly weaker, ETH $1595 slightly recovered, market enters negative Gamma range, Fear and Greed Index remains at low extreme fear.
ETF weekly major outflows: BTC spot ETF single week net outflow of $1.79 billion, BlackRock's IBIT outflow scale tops; ETH ETF simultaneous outflows, only a few AI, XRP related ETFs contrarian small inflows.
Coin strength differentiation: SOL continues to rebound slightly leading mainstream; MEME, AI sectors generally pull back, PEPE, HYPE weaken together, market has no strong theme.
Industry macro news: RWA platform Securitize confirms July 2 NYSE listing to raise $400 million; Ethereum Foundation layoffs and budget cuts weigh on ETH; Fed high rate expectations continue to suppress risk assets.
BTC macro cycle: In recent years, Bitcoin's monthly closing has never fallen below mining cost. Once price approaches mining cost, unprofitable mines shut down, hashrate drops, mining difficulty adjusts down, remaining miners have lower costs, sell orders reduce, market naturally has support, hard to close below cost for long. Especially after the 2024 halving, with ETF and institutional funds underpinning, recent years' retests of cost have quickly recovered above monthly line.
In the 2022 bear market, Bitcoin was at 1.6, at that time the global mining cost was above 1.8, monthly closes were below cost for several consecutive months, countless mines cut losses and exited; 2018, March 12 crash also all broke through cost line. And mining cost is not a fixed number, electricity price rises, hashrate increases cost becomes higher, mines shut down difficulty drops cost will dive again. Once global liquidity tightens, US stocks crash, panic selling when miners' cost support cannot withstand stampede, short-term monthly close below production cost is entirely possible. Cost range can be accumulated long-term, but cannot be certain that monthly line will never close below cost.
Current structure: BTC targets 5.4-5.5, extreme 5W, will usher in its epic rebound rise!
Expiration pressure weak oscillation: BTC 60100 slightly weaker, ETH $1595 slightly recovered, market enters negative Gamma range, Fear and Greed Index remains at low extreme fear.
ETF weekly major outflows: BTC spot ETF single week net outflow of $1.79 billion, BlackRock's IBIT outflow scale tops; ETH ETF simultaneous outflows, only a few AI, XRP related ETFs contrarian small inflows.
Coin strength differentiation: SOL continues to rebound slightly leading mainstream; MEME, AI sectors generally pull back, PEPE, HYPE weaken together, market has no strong theme.
Industry macro news: RWA platform Securitize confirms July 2 NYSE listing to raise $400 million; Ethereum Foundation layoffs and budget cuts weigh on ETH; Fed high rate expectations continue to suppress risk assets.
BTC macro cycle: In recent years, Bitcoin's monthly closing has never fallen below mining cost. Once price approaches mining cost, unprofitable mines shut down, hashrate drops, mining difficulty adjusts down, remaining miners have lower costs, sell orders reduce, market naturally has support, hard to close below cost for long. Especially after the 2024 halving, with ETF and institutional funds underpinning, recent years' retests of cost have quickly recovered above monthly line.
In the 2022 bear market, Bitcoin was at 1.6, at that time the global mining cost was above 1.8, monthly closes were below cost for several consecutive months, countless mines cut losses and exited; 2018, March 12 crash also all broke through cost line. And mining cost is not a fixed number, electricity price rises, hashrate increases cost becomes higher, mines shut down difficulty drops cost will dive again. Once global liquidity tightens, US stocks crash, panic selling when miners' cost support cannot withstand stampede, short-term monthly close below production cost is entirely possible. Cost range can be accumulated long-term, but cannot be certain that monthly line will never close below cost.
Current structure: BTC targets 5.4-5.5, extreme 5W, will usher in its epic rebound rise!
