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The high-interest rate environment remains unchanged, and short-term positive catalysts are unlikely to reverse Bitcoin's long-term downtrend.
Under pressure with weak oscillations upon expiration: BTC slightly weakened to $60,100, ETH slightly recovered to $1,595, the market entered a negative gamma zone, and the Fear & Greed Index remained at extremely low levels.
ETF recorded massive weekly outflows: BTC spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $1.79 billion in a single week, with BlackRock's IBIT leading the outflows; ETH ETFs also saw outflows, while only a few AI and XRP-related ETFs saw marginal net inflows.
Divergence in coin strength: SOL continued its rebound, slightly leading the majors; MEME and AI sectors generally corrected, with PEPE and HYPE weakening together, and no clear dominant trend in the market.
Industry macro news: RWA platform Securitize confirmed its NYSE listing on July 2, raising $400 million; the Ethereum Foundation's layoffs and budget cuts weighed on ETH; high interest rate expectations from the Fed continued to pressure risk assets.
In the long term, Bitcoin's monthly close in recent years has never fallen below the mining cost. When the price approaches mining cost, unprofitable miners shut down, hashrate drops, mining difficulty adjusts downward, the cost for remaining miners decreases, sell pressure lessens, and the market naturally finds support, making it hard for the monthly close to stay below cost. Especially after the halving in 2024, with ETF and institutional funds providing support, the price has quickly rebounded above the monthly line each time it retraced to cost.
During the 2022 major bear market, Bitcoin hit $16,000, while the average mining cost was above $18,000. For several consecutive months, monthly closes were below cost, and countless miners exited at a loss; the 2018 bear market and the March 12 crash also broke through the cost line. Moreover, mining cost is not fixed—when electricity prices rise or hashrate increases, cost goes up; when miners shut down and difficulty drops, cost can plunge. Once global liquidity tightens and US stocks plunge, panic selling overwhelms miner cost support, making it entirely possible for the monthly close to briefly fall below production cost. The cost range can be used for long-term accumulation, but one cannot assume the monthly close will never fall below cost.
Current structure: BTC target $5.4K–$1.79B, extreme at $400M, will usher in its epic rebound rally! #比特币
Expiration pressure weak oscillation: BTC 60100 slightly weaker, ETH $1595 slightly recovered, market enters negative Gamma range, Fear and Greed Index remains at low extreme fear.
ETF weekly major outflows: BTC spot ETF single week net outflow of $1.79 billion, BlackRock's IBIT outflow scale tops; ETH ETF simultaneous outflows, only a few AI, XRP related ETFs contrarian small inflows.
Coin strength differentiation: SOL continues to rebound slightly leading mainstream; MEME, AI sectors generally pull back, PEPE, HYPE weaken together, market has no strong theme.
Industry macro news: RWA platform Securitize confirms July 2 NYSE listing to raise $400 million; Ethereum Foundation layoffs and budget cuts weigh on ETH; Fed high rate expectations continue to suppress risk assets.
BTC macro cycle: In recent years, Bitcoin's monthly closing has never fallen below mining cost. Once price approaches mining cost, unprofitable mines shut down, hashrate drops, mining difficulty adjusts down, remaining miners have lower costs, sell orders reduce, market naturally has support, hard to close below cost for long. Especially after the 2024 halving, with ETF and institutional funds underpinning, recent years' retests of cost have quickly recovered above monthly line.
In the 2022 bear market, Bitcoin was at 1.6, at that time the global mining cost was above 1.8, monthly closes were below cost for several consecutive months, countless mines cut losses and exited; 2018, March 12 crash also all broke through cost line. And mining cost is not a fixed number, electricity price rises, hashrate increases cost becomes higher, mines shut down difficulty drops cost will dive again. Once global liquidity tightens, US stocks crash, panic selling when miners' cost support cannot withstand stampede, short-term monthly close below production cost is entirely possible. Cost range can be accumulated long-term, but cannot be certain that monthly line will never close below cost.
Current structure: BTC targets 5.4-5.5, extreme 5W, will usher in its epic rebound rise!