6.28 BTC Afternoon Market Analysis

BTC has repeatedly failed to break through the 60k mark, indicating that this is not a support level but rather the most fiercely contested area between bulls and bears. What truly determines the direction is not whether it falls, but the strength of the rebound.

From the 4-hour perspective, BTC is still operating within a downtrend, with MA60 continuously suppressing the price. The previous area around 60,900 has formed a significant resistance level, and each approach triggers capital sell-offs, indicating insufficient market confidence in going long.

The 1-hour structure is even more apparent, with highs steadily decreasing. MACD remains below the zero axis. Although the green bars are shortening, it mainly indicates a slowdown in bearish momentum rather than a genuine bullish resonance. The KDJ golden cross at low levels has limited strength, and the sustainability of the rebound remains questionable.

The biggest change in capital flow currently is that active selling by bears has weakened, but receiving funds have also not seen a significant increase in volume. In this kind of market, consolidation is most likely before another directional move, and given the current trend, the probability of a continued downward move remains higher than a direct reversal.

Trading Strategy:
Primary Plan: Go short near 60,050-60,500. Targets: 59,500-59,000. If broken, continue to watch the 58,500 area.

Secondary Plan: If it firmly reclaims 60,700 with a volume breakout above 61,000, then consider a short-term adjustment strategy. Otherwise, all rebounds should still be treated as opportunities to short at higher levels, and blindly buying the dip is not recommended.
$BTC $ETH $IOST