Geopolitics changed overnight, and oil prices are about to go haywire again?

Reuters just broke: On June 27, the U.S. launched a new round of strikes against Iran, triggered by an attack on oil tankers near the Strait of Hormuz, with the U.S. and Iran blaming each other for "breaking the ceasefire." This is the most tense moment since the interim peace agreement.

But oddly enough—USO last traded at $105.48, down 3.5% on the day.

The market is still pricing in a "supply recovery," and the geopolitical premium hasn't fully played out yet.

Core logic:

Oil prices fell earlier because the market thought "the storm had passed";

Now, with tanker attacks and U.S.-Iran mutual strikes, it shows the Hormuz risk hasn't been lifted at all, and prices can suddenly spike from lows at any time.

🔹 Conflict does not escalate → oil prices fall = cooling inflation + risk asset recovery (fake dip)

🔹 Slowdown in Hormuz transit / surge in war risk premiums → supply premium immediately refilled, oil prices revalued

Watch three things:

WTI 69–70, Brent 72–75 key range

Daily number of vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz (more leading than oil prices)

Whether the U.S. and Iran continue to trade blows

One sentence: Don't be fooled by a single-day plunge. The risk premium is just late, not absent.