US-Iran negotiations broke down. Why isn't the crypto market falling? What's the outlook?

Here's the reason~
US: Elections approaching, unwilling to engage in a prolonged ground war in the Middle East; airstrikes deliberately avoided residential areas, nuclear facilities, and inland core targets, only hitting coastal frontline equipment, actively controlling conflict intensity, signaling "limited punishment".
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Iran: Long-term sanctions + previous US/Israeli bombings have strained the economy and people's livelihoods. An all-out war would severely damage oil exports and domestic infrastructure; retaliation targeted only overseas US military bases, not actively attacking the US mainland.
Both sides avoided excessive retaliatory actions, keeping the narrative under control. The Swiss talks on June 30 are still expected to move forward, so market sentiment sees this as a case of making a mountain out of a molehill and redrawing lines, which is why the crypto market hasn't accelerated its decline from yesterday to now!
Looking ahead at the US-Iran situation: Only if mutual attacks cause large-scale military casualties, major oil sea lanes are broadly blocked, or Iranian nuclear facilities are hit, will the conflict rapidly spiral upward, causing oil prices to surge and global risk aversion to fully ignite. Only then could the crypto market enter a deep correction. Otherwise, it's hard to see the kind of deep plunge seen in the past in the short term!
Returning to the current market: Last week, we stuck to shorting and reaped good profits. The short positions given on Friday, after multiple rounds of raising the average entry price, are all above 602. Currently, the pullback has reached 599, and ETH has dropped to 1566. Everyone can relax a bit—cut losses where needed, hold where appropriate, and get some good rest!
For short-term targets, you can decide based on your own view. We still look at targets 586-1515 first. We need to wait patiently for the Fed's hawkish signals, the collapse of US AI tech stocks, the Mt. Gox payout selling pressure... and a series of other major bearish landmines to arrive. Only then will it be the prime opportunity for big gains! Short sellers, please hold your positions! Step by step: 566-536-488!
If the bearish news this weekend doesn't materialize tonight and Monday doesn't see a direct plunge, then for the rest of the week, focus on the Nonfarm Payrolls! Once the NFP exceeds expectations again, the bottom-fishing bulls, brace for a devastating blow! #美光市值超越Meta跻身全美前十 #南非VS加拿大 #美国5月PCE通胀升至4.1%创三年新高 $BTC $ETH $SOL