Strategy’s market cap falls below its Bitcoin holdings net value for the first time—has Saylor’s “perpetual motion machine” finally stopped?

Strategy’s stock price is now worth less than the Bitcoin in its wallet.

mNAV, the ratio of market cap to Bitcoin holdings net value, has fallen below 1 for the first time.

What is mNAV? Simply put, it’s the company’s market cap ÷ the net value of its Bitcoin holdings.

Previously, this figure had consistently held steady above 1.5 for years, even peaking at more than 2×. That meant the market not only recognized the value of the coins it held, but was also willing to pay a large premium for its “leveraged betting game.”

But today—

The market says: Your coins are worth $100, but as a person, you’re only worth $95.

A discount. An inverted relationship. A first in history.

This is the first time since the Saylor model was established.

Unprecedented.

Let’s quickly recap the Saylor myth.

Michael Saylor, the biggest “gambler” in Bitcoin. Strategy’s model is simple: issue stocks, issue convertible bonds, raise money from the stock market, and go all-in buying Bitcoin.

At its peak, Strategy’s market cap was more than 2× its BTC holdings net value.

The market is willing to pay a premium because everyone believes Saylor will keep buying, pushing BTC prices even higher.

It’s a perfect closed loop: stock price high → financing to buy BTC → BTC rises → stock price higher → continue financing…

Looks like a perpetual motion machine, doesn’t it?

But now, this perpetual motion machine is running out of fuel.

Not only is it trading at a discount—what’s even more terrifying is that the financing channels are starting to rust.

Strategy’s preferred stock STRC has fallen to an all-time low of $73.62. Its implied yield has surged to 15.6%.

What does 15.6% mean? It means the market considers this stock extremely risky—requiring very high returns before anyone dares to touch it.

Even worse, Coinbase’s Bitcoin premium index has been negative for 40 consecutive days.

40 days.

U.S. buyers have collectively disappeared. No one is willing to pay a high price for BTC anymore.

The soul-searching question arrives—

Can the Saylor model still continue?

In the short term, yes.

As long as BTC doesn’t crash, Strategy can still prop up its base with its existing Bitcoin holdings.

But in the long term, the problem is too big.

Previously, Strategy’s logic was: When BTC rises, the value of what I hold increases; more importantly, I can issue new shares at high levels, drain cash from the market, and keep buying.

Now the issue is: the market is giving you a discount. No one wants to pay a premium for your “BTC strategy” anymore.

Issue new shares? Issuing at a discount dilutes existing shareholders—Saylor himself wouldn’t dare do that.

Issue convertible bonds? The interest rates are terrifyingly high.

The cost of financing has become unbearable.

“When the market no longer buys into your story, no matter how many assets you hold, you’re just a ‘coin-hoarding whale’—not a ‘financial giant.’”

Previously, Strategy was a “leveraged BTC ETF,” enjoying a double premium.

Now, it may be devolving into an “ordinary BTC holding institution.”

If U.S. stocks keep falling, or if BTC stays sluggish, with mNAV continuing below 1, it could trigger a chain reaction: major shareholders become unhappy, institutions short, the preferred stock collapses, and finally the company is forced to sell BTC to save itself.

That would be the real nightmare.

My take:

The Saylor model won’t die immediately, but the golden era is already over.

In the past few years, he bet on the right direction for BTC.

Now, he’s betting that BTC can rebound quickly and pull mNAV back above 1.

But the harshest thing about the market is this:

“When you need an upward move to solve your problems, it often means the downward spiral has already started.”

So if you’re a long-term holder, keep an eye on mNAV.

If the discount keeps widening, it means the market is voting with its feet.

When the whale starts lacking oxygen, the whole ocean will feel the shockwaves.

Do you think Saylor will sell some BTC to save the company? #0成本拿2股SK海力士 #美光市值超越Meta跻身全美前十 $BTC $ETH $SOL