Store-of-value assets are falling across the board, with gold, silver, and Bitcoin all plunging.

These three assets usually have little correlation, but they share a common label: store-of-value assets that hedge against fiat currency depreciation.

When these three things collapse together, the market is actually saying one thing: the depreciation trade logic has unraveled.

Gold broke below $4000 intraday today, with an annual high of $5586, now at $4103, down about 28% from the peak.

Silver is even worse, down over 50% from its peak to below $59.

bitcoin:native now at $60212 $ETH $1574, funding rate near zero.

The most unusual thing is that the US-Iran war is escalating. Normal logic would be: geopolitical conflict → risk aversion → gold rises. But gold actually broke below $4000 as the war escalates. This shows that the suppressing power of the rate hike narrative in the market is now stronger than the demand for geopolitical safe-haven.

Warsh has been sending hawkish signals, clearly leaning toward rate hikes rather than cuts. The dollar is now at multi-month highs. When the cost of holding non-yielding assets keeps rising, anything without cash flow becomes harder to hold its valuation, whether it's called gold or Bitcoin.

Gold's drop from $5600 to $4000 is a true trend decline, driven by the dollar's strengthening cycle systematically crushing the depreciation narrative. BTC's decline from its peak to now is much smaller than gold's, and the funding rate has returned to near zero, indicating that leverage has been mostly cleared and the extreme panic phase is over.

But the coming week is really going to be tough.

This week, three pressures are stacking: the July 2 nonfarm payrolls data was moved forward from the 5th due to the Independence Day holiday, June 30 is month-end institutional rebalancing, and the US-Iran conflict continues to escalate.

If the nonfarm payrolls employment data continues to be strong, Morgan Stanley's logic that low unemployment triggers rate hikes will be directly validated, and the market will shift one notch further toward rate hikes. Month-end rebalancing usually brings passive selling pressure, as institutions reduce risk assets at the end of the quarter.

My current view is not to chase direction in the short term, whether long or short. BTC is grinding around $60K. After the options expiration above, the pressure eased a bit, but macro pressure hasn't disappeared. Wait for the nonfarm payrolls data to come out; that will be the real watershed for this direction.

If nonfarm payrolls are strong → rate hike expectations continue to pressure → $60K can't hold → look at $57-58K.

If nonfarm payrolls are weak → rate cut expectations revive → then BTC has a chance to truly turn $60K into support.

The trading strategy for this week is just one word: wait.

Not investment advice.