On the night of the 26th to the 27th, the US and Iran carried out two rounds of “mutual brawls,” and the fighting has flared up again! This is already Iran’s second time attacking an “unregistered” oil tanker, and the US military has also carried out a second round of airstrikes on Iran. In essence, Iran is set on demanding tolls for the Strait. What it is effectively carrying out now is a “trial run of Strait tolls.” As long as there are commercial vessels that have not been “registered,” Iran will strike them across the board—its aim is to collect tolls smoothly after 60 days. Iran’s ambition is to become the leader of the Middle East, to build a “Muslim NATO” organization, and to challenge the US dollar’s hegemony. Its core slogans are: “Middle East for Middle Easterners,” and “With the Strait in hand to command the world.” It is trying to bind the world through the “military deterrence” of “Strait tolls,” replacing the US-led Middle East security framework. Its underlying goal is to push external powers (especially the US) to withdraw and to establish its own central say in regional affairs. The 60-day “Memorandum of Understanding” between the US and Iran is not a blueprint for peace—both sides are only treating it as a breathing-space tool, with no intention of making concessions to each other. All of the de-escalatory gestures on both sides right now are merely delaying to build up strength. The core demands are completely opposed (Strait tolls, proxy forces, nuclear issues, unfrozen assets, and so on), so there is no room for compromise. In the short term, they will control the scale of the conflict to avoid an all-out war, but the “mutual brawls” will only escalate round after round—subsequent negotiations between the US and Iran are doomed to fail! In the medium term, the crypto market is bearish. ETH target: break 1500.