#早报 | June 28 (Sunday)

**#BTC $60k** | **ETH $1,580** | **Fear & Greed Index 15 (Extreme Fear)**

Market Overview

- BTC back to $60K, strong rebound after hitting $58K overnight, with buying support in the $58K area
- ETH broke below $1,500 intraday, hitting a 14-month low, **USDT market cap surpasses ETH for the first time** — a landmark event
- BTC down over 28% in June, a 52% pullback from ATH
- ETFs have seen net outflows of $3.75 billion for 6 consecutive weeks

5 Major Events Last Night

1. BTC bounced from $58K to $60K, short-term support confirmed
2. ETH broke below $1,500, USDT market cap exceeds ETH for the first time (stablecoin > ETH, extreme risk-off signal)
3. ETFs saw $3.75B in outflows for 6 straight weeks, institutions still exiting
4. Strategy STRC fell below par, BTC financing model under pressure
5. CZ on the pullback: a triple overlay of AI diverting funds + geopolitical risks + four-year cycle

### 🎯 Today's Assessment
- **BTC**: Consolidating in the $58K-$62K range (baseline 55%), support at $58K but lacks upward momentum
- **ETH**: Weak consolidation at $1,500-$1,650, Sharplink's contrarian buying worth noting
- **RWA Sector**: Relatively resilient, retail investors making contrarian allocations

### ⚠️ Risks
- Fear Index at 15, market sentiment extremely pessimistic, but historically extreme fear often marks a阶段性 bottom zone
- Quarter-end liquidation pressure remains, watch for bottom signals in the first week of July

**Accuracy: ~95% (173/182)**