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BTC's core narrative from the very beginning has been "flipping gold," yet its market cap is still only about 1/25th of gold's. Staying true to the original intent, I will absolutely not consider any profit-taking until BTC flips gold.
Even without considering flipping gold, U.S. Treasury bonds still need the help of crypto technology. For U.S. Treasuries to achieve a soft landing, two things are needed:
1. A window period of lower interest rates (doesn't need to last long)
2. Sufficient buyers for short-term bonds
This way, we can "borrow short to pay long," quickly reduce interest expenses, extend the lifespan, and then rely on AI growth to fill the deficit.
The most promising buyers for short-term bonds are actually stablecoins! China already holds about $800 billion in U.S. Treasuries, making it a top buyer; in comparison, stablecoins hold about $300 billion in U.S. Treasuries, making them also a major player in Treasuries. Legislation requires stablecoin reserves to invest 90% in short-term bonds or cash, so increasing the scale of stablecoins = creating stable demand for U.S. Treasuries.
These buyers have very low sensitivity to the underlying U.S. Treasuries, and they are unlikely to sell during a rate hike cycle, causing a secondary shock. When you hold stablecoins yourself, have you ever thought, "Because U.S. Treasury yields are rising, the face value drops, reserves shrink, so I need to sell my stablecoins"? Probably not.
There are two simplest ways to grow the scale of stablecoins:
1. A 10x opportunity with fundamental support appears on-chain (not MEME, but an asset that already has a sufficiently large market cap, then multiplies), attracting retail and institutional investors to deposit large amounts of stablecoins.
2. Stablecoins directly offer interest, sucking deposits away from banks and buying U.S. Treasuries.
Although the second method is better, banking industry lobbying presents huge resistance. Bank deposits are mainly used for lending, with very little contribution to government bonds. Banks will eventually be defeated by the trend, but that may not happen in a year or two. The window of time for Trump to handle U.S. Treasury interest payments is probably only 1-2 years. Otherwise, another president will have to do the same thing😂.
Method 1 actually already has an existing framework:
High-quality AI assets, U.S. stock assets, commodity assets + the crypto infrastructure that captures these trades and lending (ETH, SOL, HYPE, UNI, AAVE), and the most likely candidate to flip gold, BTC. In the next 2 years, these assets could rally 10x, and stablecoin scale would correspondingly expand 10x, making it entirely possible to absorb $3-5 trillion in U.S. Treasury demand.
To achieve these trillions in stable U.S. Treasury demand, if the government gives another push to crypto and accelerates BTC flipping gold, this could be one of the paths of least resistance and most feasibility at present.