#BTC下探60000美元关键关口 On the 27th, BTC price retested $58k, ETH hit a double bottom, MSTR plunged, and $3 billion flowed out—is it time to hoard sats?

The weekend market might be weak today, as it coincides with one of the largest option expirations of the year. Bitcoin price fell back to lower levels overnight, Ethereum touched a low of $1,500, and MSTR also came under significant pressure. Today's market movement is mainly focused on position adjustments ahead of major derivatives settlements.
So why is Bitcoin falling? The selling pressure last night coincided with the approach of a large options expiration. This was expected, and indeed it happened, as some large players adjusted their positions or sold on rumors before the actual expiration date, triggering the decline. It's just that due to the current lack of liquidity, price fluctuations are greater, making the drop feel more severe.
What's next? Will July improve?
Bitcoin price is focused on clarity after expiration, while Ethereum shows selective buying interest. Interestingly, over the past twelve years, Bitcoin's average return in June has been near zero. In contrast, July has shown stronger gains, averaging about 7.5% across multiple cycles. This pattern suggests that July is historically one of Bitcoin's better-performing months compared to June. Bitcoin's price has been highly volatile, once dropping to around $58k, before rebounding above $60k in recent hours with new long positions emerging.
Options contracts expire today, with a total of $10.6 billion in contracts set to settle, mainly involving futures and options on Deribit and CME. But ironically, after the June decline, 80% of these contracts are already out of the money. Negative dealer gamma means that until the market breaks above the $68k to $70k range, price volatility could be more intense, and positions may shift.
Ethereum's price increase has lagged behind Bitcoin, but after the morning decline, it appears to have formed a double-bottom pattern. Despite weak prices, there are signs of selective accumulation. Sharplink reportedly bought Ethereum for the first time in eight months. However, this hasn't really boosted the performance of other cryptocurrencies.
In this cycle, the altcoin market has largely followed Bitcoin's lead, with Bitcoin's market share dominating and never falling below 50%.
MSTR faces massive selling pressure.
The company is also under investor investigation over its Bitcoin plan and recent financial disclosure issues. Law firms have launched investigations into potential issues that could affect shareholder interests, possibly related to the company's huge unrealized losses. The decline in its stock price is likely a market reaction to these developments. As of today, MSTR's stock price has fallen 10%. Despite strategic Bitcoin suffering billions in unrealized losses, spot Bitcoin ETF outflows in June have exceeded $3 billion, exacerbating its difficulties. Bitcoin price remains near key long-term moving averages, while Ethereum, though still under pressure, has found short-term support.
The main event today is contract expiration. Although most contracts are already out of the money, the settlement may alleviate some selling pressure. Outflows are massive and severe, but veteran investors and large shareholders are taking advantage of this weakness to accumulate spot positions. Should we be bullish or bearish? The adoption of stablecoins and the development of Layer 2 networks are both advancing. Bitcoin, Ethereum, and the overall market may still face volatility, but typically, after a decline, a rise follows.