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A $100B fully diluted market cap was insane
$CBRS is now coming back down to reality
For those interested...
If they achieve $6B in revenue by 2028 at their targeted 60% gross margin, that would imply $3.6B in gross profit
So now it’s trading at 10x 2028 estimated gross profit (optimistically) on a basic market cap basis. On a fully diluted basis, it’s 15x
Operating leverage will still be far from optimal by then, but $AMD and $AVGO trade at roughly 30x and 20x 2026 gross profit, respectively
So Cerebras isn’t necessarily insanely expensive anymore, but it has relatively weak market positioning compared with others, and its operating margins will take a long time to match competitors
They’ll also probably never match the margins of pure fabless designers, because they run their own AI cloud, which naturally brings depreciation and utilization risk