Technical Outlook: Where Will Bitcoin's Next Stop Be?

Bitcoin's weekly chart shows a price movement similar to the bear market move in late 2021 and early 2022. In 2021, Bitcoin reached its all-time high of $69,000 in November, then dropped 77.57% from its peak to its 2022 low of around $15,476 over 378 days. After that, the price stabilized for 112 days before starting a new bull cycle in 2023.

During the 2025-2026 period, Bitcoin hit an all-time high of $126,199 in October 2025, then fell 52.38% to a low of $60,000 in the first week of February. Afterward, Bitcoin recovered within the broader downtrend, then retested the 100-week exponential moving average (EMA) level of around $82,000 in early May, but faced resistance at that level. Many analysts consider this rally from February to early May a bull trap before the main downtrend resumes. Since retesting that 100-week EMA, Bitcoin's price has dropped over 29%, hitting a new yearly low of $58,115 this week.

If the current situation continues along the same lines as 2021-2022, Bitcoin's price may see further correction, reaching a low of $28,300 (77.51% of its 2025 high) by mid-October. Then the price will stabilize for 112 days before starting another bull cycle (as happened in 2023, as mentioned earlier).

Weekly Chart of BTC/USDT

On the daily chart, Bitcoin's price shows a downtrend, remaining below the key exponential moving averages. These 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day EMAs are at $67,877, $71,255, and $77,031 respectively.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart hovers at 32, just above oversold territory, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has stabilized near the zero line with a slight uptick, indicating only a decline in bearish pressure rather than a decisive reversal.

To the upside, immediate resistance aligns with the previously drawn horizontal barrier at $64,004, before the 50-day EMA at $67,877 and the 100-day EMA at $71,255, forming a dense supply zone that could limit any rebound. Above these levels, the 200-day EMA at $77,031 and the distant horizontal level near $84,410 represent broader directional hurdles, and the bearish outlook is likely to persist as long as the price remains below this accumulated resistance structure.
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