BTC Complete Market Analysis and Trading Plan (Current Price 60701) 6-28

I. Overall Trend Determination
The overall trend on the 4H timeframe is bearish. The current stage is a weak rebound and repair after the decline. This rebound is a continuation pattern, and the probability of the market returning to a downtrend in the medium to long term is higher;
On the 1H timeframe, a weak bullish rebound structure has emerged. The price has rebounded to the upper part of the box range, facing obvious resistance above, and the upward momentum is gradually weakening;
Key levels of the box range: Support 59376, Resistance 61828. The current price 60701 is at the 77% high level of the range, very close to the resistance above;
Technical indicators verification:
Moving averages: Short-term MAs have turned upward forming short-term support, but medium and long-term MAs still suppress the price from above;
MACD: Green bars narrowing to small red bars, only a short-term repair signal, no bottom reversal structure;
RSI value 48, not in overbought territory, but upside potential is limited; close to resistance, it is prone to pullback;
Probability data reference: Overall probability of decline 56.2%, probability of rise 43.8%, expected risk-reward ratio 2.08. Shorting offers higher cost-effectiveness.
II. Directional Trading Strategies
1. Trend-following Short Positions (Priority Layout, Core Idea)
① Conservative Resistance Short (Optimal Entry)
Entry range: 61600–61830 (Strong resistance zone at the upper rail of the box)
Stop loss: 62400 (Break above upper rail of the box, invalidating the short continuation logic)
Partial take profits: First target 60000, second target 59400 (middle support of the box), ultimate target 59376 (lower rail of the box).
② Current Price Short Probe (Light position to bet on a pullback)
Entry range: 60600–60800
Stop loss: 61200 (Holding above the upper part of the range, rebound continues)
Take profit targets: 60000 → 59400
Note: The current price is at the high end of the range, the risk-reward ratio is acceptable, but this is a short-term speculative trade. Do not use heavy positions.
2. Counter-trend Long Positions (Only short-term rebound bets, strict position control, no long-term holding)
① Midline Support Dip Buying
Entry range: 59370–59500
Stop loss: 59000 (Break below the box support, rebound structure damaged)
Take profits: 60600, 61700
② Extreme Deep Dip Buying
Entry range: 58200–58400
Stop loss: 57700
Take profits: 59400, 61700
Hard rule: All long positions are only for short-term rebounds. They must all be closed upon reaching the upper resistance. Do not hold long positions for the long term.
III. Breakout Scenario Response
Break above 61830 with volume and hold above: The box structure is broken, the short-term short continuation logic is invalidated. Close all short positions. Wait and observe the formation of a new range. Do not chase long positions;
Valid breakdown below 59376 (lower rail of the box): Rebound repair ends, downtrend resumes. Add to short positions in the direction of the trend. Downside targets 57800–56500.
IV. Risk Management Key Points
Position allocation: Mainly short positions, supplemented by long positions. Ratio 7:3. Prioritize trend-following trades;
Leverage control: With range-bound oscillation superimposed on a larger timeframe downtrend, keep leverage within 20x to avoid large wick pullbacks;
Position holding rules: All orders must set stop losses in advance. Do not hold losing positions. Take partial profits at take-profit levels and close positions;
Market understanding: The current movement is only a repair rebound after the decline. There is no bottom reversal signal. Do not judge a trend reversal based solely on short-term upward movement.