Yesterday, Bitcoin ETFs sold 700 million, then quickly bought back, indicating that the buying consensus here is quite strong. The 460 million sale on the 25th was the same, quickly bought back. Currently, there is reason to believe that there is a 'bottom signal' here! The consolidation zone for one year in 2024, only between 5.4-6.9! bitcoin:native

Over the past 24 hours, $BTC has been bouncing around in a tight range between roughly $58,333 and $60,754. It's eked out a tiny 0.28% gain, but that's just a blink. Zoom out, and the picture is much uglier: down 7% over the last week and nearly 19% over the last month .

The key battle right now is happening right around $58,000. The price recently dipped to a low of $58,131, which was a 21-month low . A recent analysis from Gate suggests that as long as BTC holds this $58,000 support, a short-term recovery toward $60,000-$61,000 is possible . However, if this level breaks, the next major support zone is seen all the way down in the $54,000-$56,000 area, with some analysts even eyeing $47,000-$50,000 if the bear flag pattern plays out .

Technicals: Bearish in the Long Run, But Oversold in the Short

On the daily chart, it's a textbook downtrend. Moving averages are in a bearish alignment (MA7 < MA30 < MA120), and the 4-hour ADX is above 37, which signals that the downtrend still has some serious strength behind it .

However, the shorter timeframes are starting to whisper a different story. Both the 15-minute and 4-hour MACD are showing bullish divergence, meaning price is making lower lows, but momentum is actually starting to slow down. The daily CCI and Williams %R are also deep in oversold territory. This typically suggests that the downside momentum is weakening and a short-term relief bounce is becoming more likely .

This is where things got wild. The market was heavily over-leveraged, and when BTC cracked $60,000, it set off a chain reaction . Over $1 billion in leveraged positions got liquidated across the crypto market, which forced those long positions to sell, pushing the price down even further . One analyst described it as a "leverage-oversold spiral" . The threat isn't entirely over either; there are still massive liquidation clusters, especially around the $58,000 level .

Long-Term Holders: The Ultra-Bullish Divergence

Amidst all this selling, long-term holders are doing the exact opposite. They now control a record 79% of the circulating supply . They are not selling. Old coins are staying exactly where they are—reactivation of two-year-old coins is at its lowest level since 2012 . This shows a level of conviction that is completely independent of the recent price weakness. It's a massive supply shock waiting to happen if and when demand returns.

My Take on This

This is one of the most interesting divergences I've seen in a while. The market is basically in two minds: short-term sellers are panicking and capitulating, while long-term believers are accumulating like never before. On-chain data shows a record number of BTC is at a loss, but the supply structure is starting to look a lot like the bottom phases of previous cycles .

So, where does that leave us? The short-term risk is still to the downside. That $58,000 level is the line in the sand. If it breaks, we could see a cascade toward $54,000. But the extreme oversold conditions and the long-term holder conviction suggest the selling pressure is burning itself out. It might take a catalyst—like a change in macro sentiment or a pause in ETF outflows—to flip the script. Until then, it's a grinding battle between short-term fear and long-term conviction.

⚠️ Not financial advice.