June 27: Could the second half of 2026 be the only chance for ordinary people to turn things around in crypto? Bitcoin may see a super "golden pit" in the second half of the year

Hello everyone, there hasn't been much fluctuation in the market over the weekend. This rare moment of calm has actually given me the urge to calmly review and speculate. Today, I'll write about some of my speculative insights on the current market. Some views may be quite direct, but they are what I truly think.

1. Why I firmly believe: A "super golden pit" will appear in the second half of 2026?

First, the conclusion: In the second half of this year, Bitcoin will very likely create a historic "super bottom." This price may not be seen again for many years. If you have been following my articles since late October 2025, you should know that my judgment on the rhythm of this cycle has hardly deviated. (What specific price will it reach? Keep following my subsequent articles, and I'll gradually reveal it.)

As early as last October, when Bitcoin surged to $126.2k, I clearly stated in my article: This is the top area of this cycle! Many people laughed at me at the time, saying I missed the ride, claiming Bitcoin would hit $150k or $180k, calling it a super cycle. Looking back now, was $126.2k the top? The market has given its answer.

So, where exactly is this bottom? When will it come?

The judgment range I give is: June to November 2026. How is it deduced? Read on.

2. Bitcoin halving cycle pattern: History doesn't repeat exactly, but it often rhymes

Let me first say a harsh truth: Among those big-name influencers who endlessly draw charts, channels, and waves, nine out of ten may not be as good at technical analysis as you are. That's why my articles rarely discuss those chart technical indicators; they focus mainly on the macro economy. Unfortunately, traffic is poor. In fact, candlesticks are the result of price, not the cause of price. What truly determines the long-term direction of Bitcoin are three hardcore factors: the macroeconomic cycle + global liquidity environment + internal halving law.

Let's review the historical performance after Bitcoin halvings with Jiang Feng's thinking; data doesn't lie:

First halving (November 2012): Top appeared in November 2013 (12 months later), bottom appeared in January 2015 (25 months later)

Second halving (July 2016): Top appeared in December 2017 (17 months later), bottom appeared in December 2018 (29 months later)

Third halving (May 2020): Top appeared in November 2021 (18 months later), bottom appeared in November 2022 (30 months later)

Fourth halving (April 2024): Top appeared in October 2025 (18 months later) ✅ verified

Has everyone noticed a very stable pattern?

Time from halving to top: 12 to 18 months, time from halving to bottom: 25 to 30 months

According to this pattern, working backwards from the April 2024 halving, counting 25 to 30 months forward, we get the time window: June to November 2026. But a span of nearly half a year is still too broad. We need to combine the macroeconomic "ruler" to further refine this window. Continue reading 👀

3. Macro economy: The biggest "bearish hammer" of the second half is on its way, but when the bad news is fully priced in, it becomes the biggest good news

The following part is very important, and it's what most retail investors tend to overlook.

If you think Bitcoin's rise and fall depend entirely on market makers manipulating the price, you will never escape being harvested. Real big money follows the Fed's lead. What is the biggest uncertainty in the market right now? — The shadow of Fed rate hikes is gathering again.

According to the latest predictions from CME (as of the end of June 2026):

At the September 16, 2026 FOMC meeting, the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike is as high as 46.8%, the probability of a 50-basis-point hike is 12.6%, and the total probability of a rate hike is close to 60%!

Keep in mind that just two months ago, the market was expecting 2 to 3 rate cuts this year. Now, it is starting to price in rate hikes. This 180-degree reversal in expectations is the fundamental reason why US stocks and crypto markets have been under continuous pressure recently.

Why has the rate hike expectation suddenly heated up?

Because core US inflation has rebounded beyond expectations for three consecutive months, and energy prices and service costs are running wild like a runaway horse. Fed officials have become increasingly hawkish in their recent speeches, with some even openly discussing that "even if the economy slows down, inflation must be crushed."

This means that in the second half of 2026, global risk assets will face a "stress test":

1. Liquidity contraction: Rate hikes mean less cheap money in the market, and leveraged funds will withdraw either actively or passively.

2. Decline in risk appetite: Institutional funds will prioritize selling volatile assets (like Bitcoin) and shifting to safe-haven assets like US Treasuries.

3. Risk of cascading liquidations: If Bitcoin prices continue to decline under the expectation of rate hikes, mining companies, leveraged longs, and DeFi lending protocols will all face liquidation pressure, creating a death spiral of "decline → liquidation → further decline."

Therefore, my judgment is: In the second half of 2026, especially from July to September, Bitcoin will experience its most painful and darkest moment. Market sentiment may become extremely panicked, and I expect that by then, charlatans will be discussing "Bitcoin going to zero" and "the bull market is over."

At that point, it may be the true "diamond bottom."

4. But! When the bad news is fully priced in, it's the restart of the bull market

Note, this is the most important logical turning point in the entire article. Please read it three times.

Retail investors see rate hikes and declines, seeing panic and despair. But those seasoned players who truly understand the macro cycle see the dawn of hope after the "bad news is fully priced in."

1. The end of rate hikes is the starting point of a bull market. History has repeatedly proven that at the end of each rate hike cycle, when the market has fully absorbed the impact of the last rate hike, chips are cleared out in despair, and market sentiment reaches an "absolute freezing point" — that is often the starting point of a new bull market. When everyone confirms that "this is the last rate hike," the smartest capital will enter early to grab bargains.

2. The crypto market's own halving narrative continues. In April 2028, Bitcoin will experience its fifth halving. Historical patterns tell us that 12 to 18 months before each halving, the market, after lying low at the bottom, will launch a "halving anticipation" rally in advance. Bottoming in the second half of 2026, consolidating and recovering in 2027, and taking off again before the 2028 halving — this timeline is almost seamlessly aligned.

3. Global liquidity will eventually turn. The Fed cannot keep raising rates forever. The huge debt interest costs of the US federal government are already unbearable. By the end of 2026 or early 2027, the US economy is likely to show signs of fatigue under sustained high pressure. At that point, market expectations for "halting rate hikes" or even "resuming rate cuts" will reignite. Once expectations reverse, global liquidity will flood back into risk assets like water from an opened sluice gate. Bitcoin will be the first asset to be lifted. If you haven't gotten on board by the end of this year, you will miss the dividend period again.

Writing this far, I want to share some heartfelt words with everyone.

Why do I say "the second half of 2026 may be the only chance for ordinary people to change their destiny"?

Because in financial markets, for ordinary people to achieve a small leap in social class, it doesn't depend on chasing ups and downs and short-term trading every day. Instead, it's about being brave enough to stay calm when others panic and to act when others despair at the critical moments of the big cycle.

In the second half of this year, when everyone is cursing the market and cutting losses, if you can withstand the pressure, buy those blood-soaked chips in batches, then forget about your account and hold patiently until around the 2028 halving, you will almost certainly outperform 90% of people.

But I must also remind everyone:

Don't try to buy at the exact bottom; even gods can't do that. Use a dollar-cost averaging approach, divide your funds into 6 to 12 portions, and enter the spot market in batches between July and November. Don't go all-in with your entire net worth. Only use idle money that you won't need for the next two to three years, so you can hold on!

For the second half of 2026, my core speculative path is only one:

Macro rate hike expectations rise → market declines under pressure → extreme panic → super bottom forms → bad news fully priced in → macro liquidity expectations shift → 2027-2028 halving bull market quietly starts → bull market peaks in 2029

This path is my judgment, and only my judgment. The market is always full of uncertainty, and no one can predict it 100% correctly. But this logic has at least been cross-verified by me from three dimensions: historical patterns, macroeconomics, and market cycles. I am willing to take responsibility for my understanding.

If you agree with this logic, then in the second half of this year, keep your hands steady, be patient, prepare your ammunition, and wait for that most panicked, darkest, yet most brilliant moment.

Remember: Bull markets are born in despair, grow in hesitation, and end in euphoria. In the second half of 2026, we are approaching the end of "despair," which is also the starting point of a new beginning. May we all hold our positions in the darkness before dawn.

Let's encourage each other, and we'll meet at the top.

This represents only Jiang Feng's personal views and does not constitute any investment advice. The market carries risks, and decisions should be made with caution.

If my article has inspired you, feel free to like, share, and let more friends who are still confused see it. Your support is my motivation to continue producing in-depth content!

Written by: Jiang Feng Capital

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