The probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points in July on Polymarket has dropped to 18%, with expectations of maintaining rates unchanged dominating.

ME News, on June 27 (UTC+8), PPP’s prediction market tool monitoring shows that on Polymarket, the probability of the “Fed raising rates by 25 basis points at the July FOMC meeting” has fallen to 18.1%, while the probability of “keeping rates unchanged” has risen to 81%. The total trading volume for this event has reached $21.74 million.

The market currently broadly expects that the Fed will remain on hold at the FOMC meeting scheduled for July 28-29. Although the US May CPI rose 4.2% year-on-year and energy prices have surged significantly due to developments in the Middle East, inflationary pressure remains. After the Fed kept the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% at its June meeting, the market is more inclined to wait for more economic data before deciding on the subsequent policy path. The US June CPI data to be released on July 14, as well as key economic indicators such as employment and wages, will become important variables influencing the outcome of the July policy meeting.

Odaily Seer’s prophet channel continues to track the prediction market; before pricing, see the changes. (Source: ODAILY)