The vision of 4.6 trillion is drawn, but has AAVE already taken a bite of the valuation?

AAVE is up 19%.

In the past 24 hours, while Bitcoin was repeatedly testing the $60K threshold and altcoins were in a sea of red, AAVE surged with a big green candle to $94.

The news is simple:

Aave founder Stani Kulechov stated on X that Aave is expanding its target market from crypto assets to all asset classes.

Translation: AAVE is going after Wall Street's business.

How big is this pie?

The global securities lending market has $4.6 trillion in borrowed securities, generating approximately $35 billion in annual revenue.

And how do current brokers play it? Platforms like Robinhood and Charles Schwab keep 50% to 85% of the fees from stock lending, leaving users with only scraps.

What is Aave's logic?

Tokenized stocks go on-chain via V4, and the full lending yield is returned directly to you. Real-time transparency, dynamic pricing, no middlemen taking a cut.

Stocks like AAPL and TSLA become on-chain collateral. The interest you earn from lending out Apple stock goes 100% into your pocket.

Sounds like a revolution, right?

But I have to ask:

How much of this "4.6 trillion" expectation has AAVE's current price already priced in?

Let me do the math for you.

Grayscale's June 18 report gave a fair value range: $80 to $100.

Using traditional finance’s DCF model—projecting Aave protocol to achieve net income of about $60 million by 2026, with a 20-25x P/E ratio typical of fintech companies.

When the report was published, AAVE was around $75.

And now, with the news, it's $94.

It has already hit the upper end of Grayscale's valuation range.

In other words, the market has already largely priced in the identity of "the leading crypto asset lending protocol."

What you are buying now is the yet-unfulfilled dream of "Aave becoming the global general lending layer."

But how far is this dream from reality?

Let's calm down and think.

First, the Aavenomics 3.0 buyback mechanism has not been implemented yet.

Stani hinted at automatic buybacks, but it's still "in design." From proposal to execution, there are community votes, code audits, and market testing—months at a minimum.

Second, securities lending is still in the planning stage.

"Tokenized stocks on-chain" sounds nice, but what about regulation? Compliance? Will Wall Street just sit back and do nothing?

Aave Horizon has indeed launched, cooperating with institutions like VanEck and Securitize, with deposits exceeding $440 million. But compared to the total market of $4.6 trillion, that's barely a rounding error.

Third, we just experienced the KelpDAO attack in April.

$230 million in bad debt, deposits dropped from $36 billion to $12 billion. Although smart contracts were not breached, confidence takes time to recover.

So my judgment is:

At $94, AAVE has already baked in a pretty full "narrative premium."

This is not to say AAVE won’t rise. If securities lending really works out, if Aavenomics 3.0 smoothly lands, if regulators give the green light—$175 or even higher is not a dream.

But how much are those "ifs" worth?

When the market is partying, it never tells you the answer.

"4.6 trillion is the ceiling, not the floor. From $75 to $94, the market has already paid the first deposit on this ceiling."

What remains is whether Stani can actually deliver on that vision.#0成本拿2股SK海力士 #美光市值超越Meta跻身全美前十 $BTC $ETH $AAVE