The time window has been compressed to such an extent that even 50% is considered optimistic.

Coin World News, Galaxy Digital has lowered its probability estimate of the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 to 50%, citing a tight Senate schedule and a lack of significant legislative progress before the August recess. Research head Alex Thorn said that time has become the biggest obstacle to passing the bill, rather than the content of the bill itself. Nevertheless, he still believes there will be a vote in July, but whether it can reach 60% support remains unclear. Galaxy Digital also noted that the legislative window for the Senate before the recess has further narrowed, intensifying competition.