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ETH 12 moving averages all sell signals, medium-term trend clearly bearish. **However, RSI is near oversold (30.61) + fear index extremely pessimistic + basis trading shorts may cause a short squeeze, need to be alert for technical rebound.
- **Above $1,600** is the bull-bear boundary; only above it can a rebound be discussed
- **Below $1,564** (BB lower band) is being tested; a break below sees $1,538 → $1,512
- **$1,512 is the last line of defense**; a break below heads straight to $1,500 → $1,375
- ⚠️ If basis trading shorts are closed en masse, it could trigger a short squeeze rebound—this is the biggest "reverse risk" currently
> ⚠️ The above is for technical analysis reference only and does not constitute investment advice.