Currently, for the daily and weekly timeframes, the price action of “Ice Candy Orange” and the MACD indicator have initially begun to show a bottom-bearish divergence pattern. From a technical perspective, this signal of weakening momentum often implies that the downtrend may be losing strength, and the market has the potential to see a technical rebound. In the short term, $58,000 is the key line of defense that the bulls must hold; if in the next two days the price can stabilize at this level and effectively hold the previous low, market sentiment is likely to recover. Next week’s “Ice Candy Orange” will most likely enter a rebound-and-repair phase, with a potential upside test of the resistance level around $62,000.

However, against the current macro backdrop and capital-flow conditions, we still need to remain rational and cautious when interpreting this technical signal. Although there are positive signals of a bottom-bearish divergence on the technical side, the market’s underlying capital structure (such as ongoing outflows from spot ETFs) has not yet shown a material reversal. Therefore, even if next week’s market rebounds as expected and strikes $62,000, we should initially define it as a “technical correction after being oversold” or “a rebound during a range-bound bottoming phase,” rather than the start of a new major uptrend.
In terms of specific scenario analysis, $58,000 is not only the short-term defensive floor, but also the core support for confirming whether the bottom structure holds. If this level is broken, the bottom-bearish divergence pattern faces the risk of being invalidated, and the market may seek support further lower; conversely, if the price not only holds $58,000 but also breaks through the key neckline resistance at $62,000 with increased volume during the rebound, then the right-side stabilization signal can be considered truly confirmed.
Overall, the bottom-bearish divergence gives us a window for left-side observation, but right-side confirmation still requires a resonance between price and capital flows. Next week will be a critical period to verify this bottom structure. It is recommended to closely monitor the tug-of-war between bulls and bears in the $58,000 to $62,000 range. Until a fundamental trend reversal occurs, maintain cautious optimism and strictly control position-risk. $BTC $ETH