Senators are publicly urging the CFTC to investigate Polymarket's "deceptive marketing," while Kalshi has set a new trading volume record thanks to the World Cup. The prediction market sector is undergoing a clear compliance divergence: on one hand, crypto-native platforms face tightening regulations, and on the other, Kalshi, which is regulated by the CFTC, is accelerating its expansion. Behind this divergence lies a structural shift in capital flows—compliance costs are becoming a competitive barrier in the prediction market sector. Polymarket was allowed to resume limited operations last year, but now multiple states and consumer organizations are simultaneously applying pressure, and a CFTC investigation has also been launched. Meanwhile, Kalshi's partnership with the FIFA World Cup has driven its trading volume to new highs, with its valuation reaching 40 billion. The risk is that if the CFTC takes tough enforcement action against Polymarket, it could affect the entire crypto prediction market sector, including derivatives such as tokenized stocks and binary options.