Today is June 27th, Saturday. The Wall Street institutions have finally clocked out, and the market has entered a garbage-time oscillation.

ETH $ETH is currently consolidating like a dead fish around 1570.

I clearly stated my previous strategy: as long as it cannot break through the 1622 level, the overall downside risk remains extremely high.

Recently, due to a distorted mindset and consecutive chasing of trades, I've been badly burned on the live account. In the upcoming garbage time, I won't blindly open positions. I must honestly deep-dive into practice and return to the system before restarting.

I hope to walk my own path in this market like Brother Frog.

On the macro level, a major shift has truly arrived! Last night, the U.S. launched a heavy airstrike retaliation against Iranian missile and drone bases in Iraq/Syria.

With geopolitical turmoil like this, the so-called ice-breaking agreement touted a few days ago has become worthless paper.

Everyone, fasten your seatbelts. The real super black swan is probably already on its way.

Let's talk about BTC $BTC ‌#美光市值超越Meta跻身全美前十 again.

Seeing many people on the square shouting that this wave will drop to 30k or 40k, but in my opinion, the more the market consensus aligns, the less likely the dealer will let you easily make that money.

Just like the previous $CHZ , retail investors thought it was the bottom, but they all got buried.

Personally, I believe the limit of this major cycle for BTC is around 22k.

Back to ETH: technically, whether on the daily or weekly timeframe, the bearish trend of the big drop is not over. There will definitely be another deep downward wave ahead.

Now that it can't break 1622, just keep a close eye on the major target of 1400.

Also, glancing at the market, $AAVE has been performing surprisingly well recently. It seems that quite a few people have been liquidated or margin-called in these two days of sharp drops. The liquidation mechanism has forcibly pushed up the tokens of this lending protocol.

Seeing many big guys on the square still holding their positions, posting long posts every day saying it's fine, truly impressive. It’s like seeing my former stubborn self.

A word of advice to all you stubborn position holders: stop holding! What if this black swan really smashes ETH down to $500? Unless your margin allows you to keep adding positions all the way down to below 300, that’s the only way to be absolutely safe. Otherwise, in this blood-sucking market with existing capital, the only outcome of fighting the trend is to provide liquidity to the dealer.