🔥How Bitcoin has changed through 16 adjustments from 2010 to now:

The table below is a summary of all 16 major drawdowns of Bitcoin from September 2010 to June 25, 2026, including the current one which hasn't ended yet.
The general rule is still crash then recover, however there are 2 rules that can be drawn for the next season.
🔴1. The magnitude of declines has narrowed, but not linearly
- 2010-2015: Bitcoin crashed almost to zero (9/14/10 down -94%, 6/8/11 down -94%, 11/30/13 down -85%). This was the early stage of the market with thin liquidity.
- 2017-2021: The corrections were only -30% to -55%, except for the 2018 crash (-84% after the ICO bubble burst). From 2021 to now, there have been major corrections of -32%, -33%, and currently -53%. There are no more declines >-70%.
-> Market cap and liquidity have prevented extreme magnitudes from occurring.
🔴2. In exchange, the accumulation time to recover has been extended
The early $BTC crashes recovered very quickly:
- 02/09/17 took 40 days to return to the old peak
- 08/11/17 took 8 days
- 08/01/21 took only 18 days
- From 2018 marked a change: The crash on 12/17/17 took 1079 days, the one on 11/10/21 took 846 days, and the one on 11/30/13 took 1181 days.
Notably, the crash on 20/04/25 (-32%) only took 121 days thanks to strong demand from ETFs and DAT.
🔴3. Large corrections (>-70%) always lead to extremely long recoveries (minimum 800 days, maximum 1180 days) with no exceptions.
Corrections of 30-55% have a recovery time that depends on the macroeconomic context at that time.
🔴4. Where is the current correction positioned?
From 10/6/25 to now is 262 days, down -54% at the bottom of $58,900
Compared to history, this is already a high decline and one of the longest in terms of days of decline, only after the 2021-2022 period (376 days down -78% and took 846 days to recover).
If we apply historical data, there are about ~100 days of decline left, and whether this happens quickly or slowly will depend heavily on the macroeconomic situation, especially whether the Fed reverses its policy in the coming months (or some new narrative attracts capital inflows like the #Bitcoin Spot ETF from BlackRock in 2023).