II. Core Drivers of This Decline (Macro + Capital Logic)

1. Significant Delay in Fed Rate Cut Expectations
U.S. inflation persistence exceeds expectations, forcing the market to reprice a "higher-for-longer rates scenario, possibly even a rate hike by year-end." Real yields on U.S. Treasuries rise, suppressing all high-risk assets. BTC/ETH are highly correlated with U.S. tech stocks and Nvidia, leading to a synchronized valuation compression.

2. Institutional Capital Exodus + Sustained Net Outflows from Spot ETFs
Institutional incremental capital pulled back in the first half, with early-cycle bull market profit-takers concentrating their exits. Long position unwinding creates a negative feedback loop driving prices lower.

3. Short-Term Event Shock: $10 Billion Options Expiry Pressure
On Friday, June 26, Deribit sees a concentrated $10 billion BTC options expiry. A large number of call options expire out of the money, forcing market makers to hedge and intensifying short-term selling pressure. This could trigger sharp volatile "wicks."

4. Ethereum's Own Weak Fundamentals
The Foundation undergoes layoffs, development progress falls short of expectations, and the Glamsterdam upgrade benefits have yet to materialize. Capital flows out of the Layer 1 blockchain sector, leaving ETH without an independent bullish catalyst.