As of June 26, 2026, gold is in a key battleground zone after a deep pullback, with short-term pressure but medium-to-long-term logic intact.

Current Price Overview

- International spot: approximately $4,035/oz (fluctuating around the $4,000 level, down about 28% from the January historical high of ~$5,600).
- Domestic spot: Au99.99 at about 886 yuan/gram, paper gold/jewelry gold at 882–895 yuan/gram, branded gold jewelry retail at 1,215–1,221 yuan/gram.

Why the sharp drop? (Bearish forces)

1. Hawkish Fed reversal: New Chairman Walsh turned hawkish, with the dot plot shifting to "rate hikes this year," dashing rate cut hopes → U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar index strengthened (above 101), sharply raising gold's opportunity cost.
2. Geopolitical premium ebbing: U.S.-Iran tensions eased, Hormuz risk cooled, safe-haven capital exited; the reverse logic of "conflict → oil price rise → inflation → rate hike → gold price drop" dominated.
3. Capital stampede: Gold ETFs saw consecutive net outflows, COMEX long liquidation plus quantitative stop-losses, margin increases by banks exacerbated volatility, and early profit-takers closed positions en masse.

Is support still there? (Bullish fundamentals)

- Central bank gold purchases: Global central banks (nearly half of those surveyed) still plan to increase holdings, with gold's strategic allocation unchanged under de-dollarization and high debt.
- Technical oversold: RSI oversold; $4,000 (domestic ~870–880 yuan) is a key psychological support. If held, a rebound repair is possible.

Technical Level Reference

- International spot:
- Support: 4,000 (critical pivot) → 3,960 → 3,900–3,920 → 3,800
- Resistance: 4,020–4,050 → 4,100 (bull-bear line) → 4,150
- Domestic Shanghai/Au99: Support 870–880 yuan, resistance 890–900 yuan.

Outlook on Subsequent Trend

- Short term (1–3 months): Wide-range volatile with a bearish bias; the battle for $4,000 will determine direction. If Fed rate hike expectations ease (inflation declines) + the dollar retreats, a technical rebound to 4,050–4,100 is possible; if the dollar continues to strengthen and $4,000 is lost, test 3,900 or even 3,800.
- Medium to long term (1 year+): The bull market is not over. Central bank gold purchases + debt monetization + diversified reserves remain the core logic. Pullbacks are viewed as windows for phased allocation, not trend reversals.

Practical Approach (Not investment advice)

- Short-term traders: Do not chase ups and downs under high volatility; light positions near 4,000 for band trading, strictly stop-loss (break 3,900/4,100 follow trend), control leverage.
- Medium-to-long-term allocation: DCA/accumulate spot in batches (gold bars, gold ETFs), avoid high-premium jewelry; gradually build positions below 4,000 (domestic <880 yuan), do not blindly bottom-fish in one go.
- Risk control points: Watch Fed speeches, U.S. PCE/CPI, nonfarm payrolls, Middle East surprises; be cautious with leveraged products (TD, futures) regarding margin hikes and forced liquidation risks; stay light or on the sidelines.

The market carries risk, gold volatility is elevated. Decisions must be independent, and entry requires caution.