Evening BTC Market Summary + Trading Suggestions (Current Price 59983) 6-26

I. Overall Trend Judgment
Cycle Structure: The 4-hour large cycle is clearly bearish, while the 1-hour short-term trend is also weakly bearish, with no bottom reversal signal in the downtrend; the price is running below the moving average suppression, with increased selling volume during declines and reduced volume during rebounds, indicating that bearish momentum is still continuing.
Box Range Reference: Support 57943, Midline 59493, Resistance 61885, current price is in the middle of the range, with large upside pressure space, and the first support below at 59493.
Macro Level: Last night’s U.S. consumption data was weak, only leading to a minor correction; long-term economic expectations are improving, offsetting the dovish benefits, with no strong bullish catalyst to support a reversal to the upside.
Indicator Status: MACD bearish green bars continue, RSI has not entered the oversold zone, and the downtrend still has room to unfold.
II. Short Positions (Priority)
Cautious Layout: Short at the top of the box at 61600-61885
Stop Loss 62400, Take Profit in two portions: 59500 and 57950
Light Short Test: Light short at current price 59900-60100
Stop Loss 60600, Targets 59500, 58600
Note: The risk-reward ratio at the current price range is average; only trade with a small position, not heavy.
III. Long Positions (Contrarian, Only Short-term Rebound Gambling, Strict Position Management)
First Low Absorption Zone: Long at the midline support 59400-59500
Stop Loss 59000, Take Profit 60800, 61700
Extreme Low Absorption Zone: Long at the box bottom 57900-58100
Stop Loss 57300, Take Profit 59400, 61700
Hard Rule: All long positions are only for short-term rebounds; must exit at resistance levels, not held long-term.
IV. Breakout Scenarios
Stable above 61900: Bearish structure broken, stop shorting, wait and see in the new range, do not chase highs;
Break below 57900: Downside space opens, add short positions with the trend, target 56500-55800.
V. Practical Risk Control Points
Operation priority: short positions first, long positions second, position allocation 7:3;
Reduce leverage to within 20x to prevent significant drawdowns from range wicks;
Set stop loss on all orders, do not hold losing positions, and exit in batches when take profit levels are reached;
Currently there is no bottom reversal pattern; do not judge a trend reversal based solely on small rebounds.