#美国5月PCE通胀升至4.1%创三年新高 May PCE 4.1%, Core 3.4%: Probability of September Rate Hike Soars to 85%, Rate Cut Hopes Dashed Completely

#美国5月PCE通胀升至4.1%创三年新高 May PCE 4.1% Core 3.4%: September Rate Hike Probability Surges to 85%, Rate Cut Completely Out of the Picture

June 26, 2026 | U.S. Stock Market Observations

Core Conclusion
On June 25, 2026, the U.S. Commerce Department released data: May PCE year-over-year +4.1% (previous +3.8%), core PCE year-over-year +3.4% (previous +3.3%), month-over-month +0.3%. Inflation broadly "exceeded expectations" and core PCE hit its highest level since October 2023. Market expectations for a September rate hike jumped to 85.1%, and any expectation of a rate cut before Q4 2027 has been completely eliminated.

The Fed's most watched indicator delivered the most hawkish answer
At 20:30 Beijing time on June 25 (8:30 AM ET), the U.S. Commerce Department released the May Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index. This is the first key validation data point following the June FOMC meeting's shift to a "hawkish" stance, and it serves as the "baseline" for the market to reprice whether the Fed will hike in September or cut rates this year.
After the data was released, the market's reaction can be summed up in four words: "broadly exceeded expectations."

Data: Four Dimensions of Inflation Pressure

--- --- --- --- ---
Overall PCE YoY +4.1% +3.8% +3.9% Beat
Overall PCE MoM +0.4% +0.3% +0.3% Beat
Core PCE YoY +3.4% +3.3% +3.4% In Line
Core PCE MoM +0.3% +0.2% +0.3% In Line
Note: Core PCE is the Fed's most closely watched inflation indicator, stripping out "noisy" food and energy fluctuations.

Key Signal: Core PCE hit its highest level since October 2023, meaning that even excluding oil price disturbances, the U.S. "underlying inflation" is still accelerating upward.

The "Four Catalysts" for the Hawkish Shift
Why does the May PCE data reinforce the Fed's hawkish stance? Four key catalysts:
1. U.S.-Iran conflict pushes up oil prices: The average price of Brent crude in May rose 12% from April, directly lifting overall PCE.
2. Core services inflation "stickiness": Excluding housing, core services inflation was +4.2% YoY, the most stubborn component since 2022.
3. Wage growth not cooling: Average hourly earnings rose +3.9% YoY in May, moving in sync with core PCE and creating a "wage-price spiral" risk.
4. Q1 GDP revised up to +2.1%: A strong economy means the Fed doesn't need to "sacrifice inflation for growth."
Fed Governor Waller said after the data release: "The high stickiness of core PCE means policymakers must remain patient and should not consider rate cuts until confirming inflation has returned to the 2% target."

Rate Hike Probability: 85.1% and the "No Rate Cut" Narrative
The CME FedWatch tool shows that after the data release, market expectations for a September rate hike jumped from 52% before the data to 85.1%, while expectations for a rate cut within 2026 have been "zeroed out."
More aggressively, the market's probability of a rate cut before Q4 2027 has fallen to below 30%. This means the Fed's "higher for longer" policy stance may last even "longer" than the market expected at the start of the year.
In one sentence: May PCE data turned "a rate cut this year" from "unlikely" to "almost hopeless," and turned "a September rate hike" from "possible" to "highly probable."

Market Reaction: U.S. Stocks, U.S. Bonds, and the Dollar All Under Pressure
After the data release, capital markets reacted on three fronts:
U.S. Treasuries: The 10-year Treasury yield rose 8bp in a single day to 4.42%, and the 2-year Treasury yield rose 12bp to 4.55%. Short-end rates rose faster, reflecting a heightened rate hike expectation.
U.S. Dollar: The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) jumped from 100.8 to 101.6, a 13-month high. A strong dollar directly pressures gold, emerging market assets, and the yuan exchange rate.
U.S. Stocks: The Nasdaq fell -0.46% on the day, extending its losing streak to four days. Tech growth stocks faced valuation pressure from "rising discount rates," and Apple's single-day drop of 6% is closely related to this.
Gold: COMEX gold fell below the $4,000 integer level, closing at $3,998.96 per ounce, down -2.71% on the day. Strong dollar + rate hike expectations = gold's biggest "enemy."

Outlook: Three Scenario Simulations
Over the next month, PCE data will continue to dominate market sentiment. Three scenario simulations:
Scenario 1 (40% probability): Inflation remains sticky
If June CPI and July PCE continue to exceed expectations, a September rate hike will be almost certain. The 10-year Treasury yield could break 4.5%, and the dollar index could head to 103. Tech stock valuations will face further pressure.
Scenario 2 (45% probability): Data edges slightly lower
If June CPI falls below 3.0% and July core PCE YoY drops below 3.2%, rate hike expectations will "cool off," but rate cut expectations won't recover quickly. The 10-year Treasury yield would retreat to a range of 4.2-4.3%.
Scenario 3 (15% probability): Inflation falls rapidly
If oil prices drop sharply (e.g., U.S.-Iran peace agreement) + core services inflation declines significantly, the market may restart the narrative of "1-2 rate cuts in 2026." The dollar index would fall to 99-100, and gold would rebound to 4,200-4,300.

Asset Allocation Insights
Against the backdrop of "rising hawkishness," three allocation directions are worth noting:
1. Cash and Short-Term Bonds: 2-3 year U.S. Treasury yields above 4.5% offer better relative value than longer-term bonds.
2. Defensive Sectors: Healthcare, utilities, and consumer staples are relatively resilient during rate hike cycles.
3. Gold's "Reverse Logic": If the dollar index breaks above 103 and the 10-year yield breaks above 4.5%, gold may have one last leg down, but the medium-to-long-term "safe haven + inflation hedge" logic remains intact.

This article does not constitute investment advice.$XAUUSD