June 26

Summary in one sentence today: The AI bubble begins to leak, and Bitcoin takes a hit along with it.

(1) Asian stock circuit breakers trigger Bitcoin decline

OpenAI's IPO may be delayed, SoftBank plunges 12% in a single day. South Korea's stock market triggers a circuit breaker (down 8%), Nikkei drops 5%, and the entire AI semiconductor supply chain experiences a collective sell-off.

The U.S. "Magnificent Seven" stocks have evaporated a combined $3 trillion in June, on track for the largest single-month decline in history.

Bitcoin falls back below 59k again. It’s not just Web3—global risk assets are all being repriced.

(2) Three major pressures weigh on Bitcoin

First, ETFs: Net outflows of $691.7 million yesterday, with 7 consecutive days of withdrawals, and the amounts are growing.

Second, MicroStrategy: MSTR dropped another 14% today, having halved since its first Bitcoin sale, with unrealized losses exceeding $13 billion. STRC continues to fall, the flywheel is completely stuck, and the next SEC filing is the real time bomb.

Third, macro: May PCE inflation at 3.4%, far above the Fed's 2% target. JPMorgan directly states that the next move is likely a rate hike, not a cut. The U.S. dollar continues to strengthen—the number one enemy of risk assets.

(3) But bottom signals are gradually emerging

Fear & Greed Index at 16, weekly RSI at 29.3, and price below the 200-week moving average. All three occurring simultaneously has only happened 3 times in history, each marking a major cycle bottom.

On-chain trading volume has plummeted 70% from the average, selling pressure near exhaustion. Hyperliquid's largest long position is facing over $110 million in unrealized losses, continuing #BTC #eth